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BookingAlpha Option Trading Advisory

Saturday, June 23, 2018

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (June 23, 2018)

This week's analysis has been published at

Download Weekend Portfolio Analysis (2018-06-23).pdf

If the above link doesn't work for you, simply log in to, navigate to the "Weekly Analysis" tab and download the document from there.

The Weekend Portfolio Analysis will be available on this site next week for historical reference.

All currently open positions can be seen on the 2018 Track Record page

Previous Analysis now publicly available:
Weekend Portfolio Analysis (June 15, 2018) 
Recent Trading Activity

- No Activity.

Market Conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 29 (Neutral. Down from 74 last week)
McClellan: -24 (Neutral. Down from -12 last week)
Stocks above their 20 DMA: 55% (Neutral. Down from 59% last week)

No man's land

For the second week in a row all three oscillators went down. In the previous analysis this prompted me to favor some downside bias, as all three had gone down while price hadn't. So, there was an incipient bearish divergence. The move was almost 1 percent down this week and we are  far from oversold.

I think there's decent support in this market and we're seeing that down moves can barely be sustained to become more serious. We're also entering the summer months, which are usually slow, low volume (boring) until September. I'm looking at the lower red diagonal as support, pointing to around 2,670 for this week. That would be an oversold environment and it would take more significant fear to go lower than that.

The Russell Index:
(Click on image to enlarge)
RUT a little weak the last couple of days, yet it had overall a better week than the SPX.

Current Portfolio:
The SPY Calls and SVXY Calls expire in December and January of next year. All bullish bets on a market rebound.

Let's now look at the income plays.

Jul. SPX/SPY 2490/2500 - 255 Put side of Elephant
Net Credit: $1,057. Four weeks to expiration.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Defense lines: 2,565 to the downside (adjust Put side).

Jul. RUT/IWM 1570/1575/1745/1750 - 159/175 Elephant
Net Credit: $1,684. Four weeks to expiration.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Defense lines: 1,615 to the downside (adjust Put side). 1,710 to the upside (close Calls at a loss, keep riding Put side, which has a credit that is greater than the Call side loss.

Action Plan for the Week

- Defend the RUT Elephant's Call side (by just closing it) if RUT rallies past 1,710

- Initiate the first August position on Monday. My candidate right now is to deploy an SPX Elephant. As usual, I'll be following the Elephant guidelines described on

Economic Calendar

Monday: US New Home Sales.
Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence. A couple of FOMC  members speak.
Wednesday: Durable Goods. Pending Home Sales.
Thursday: EU Leaders Summit. US GDP.
Friday: EU Leaders Summit. Europe CPI. Chicago PMI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Trade with confidence my friends,

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Check out 2018 Track Record

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