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Sunday, April 20, 2014

50 Day Breakout system with 50 SMA - 100 SMA crossover confirmation

An automated system for trading currencies and futures.
I was recently contacted by a reader that specializes in currencies and commodities who trades a large portfolio. He has been successful over the years trading a very simple breakout/trend following system which he wanted to have automated and back-tested. In return for my efforts automating it and back-testing it, I would get, well, the system itself. And because neither him nor I believe in trading secrecy or selling systems, we decided to share it here on the site for free with the world. Thank you Pavel for your contribution.

Friday, April 18, 2014

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (2014-04-18)

We reached a short term oversold extreme last week that was ideal for selling out of the money Puts. Even if you were wrong with your timing, you still had the chance to place your strike prices far out of the money due to the high implied volatility of the options. Those who entered Credit Put spread positions in the major indices saw the reward this week as the market rebounded with decent strength. SPX went from 1818.18 to 1864.85, for a 2.57% gain in just 4 days. And for me it was a pretty quiet week where I did nothing.

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (April 12, 2014)

SPX from 1863.92 to 1815.69 for a 2.59% loss this week. That's a more serious number. SPX is now down -1.6% for the year, Dow Jones is down -3.2% for the year and Russell -4.6%.

This was a tough week for me, where I adjusted my RUT 1080/1090 Credit Put spread down to 1055/1060 guaranteeing a negative result for April and I also entered a brand new position: a June RUT 920/930 Credit Put Spread. 

June 2014, RUT Credit Put Spread

Stimulated by the blood bath in RUT the last 9 days, I opened the first June position of the year. Normally I don't go that far in time (69 days to exp.) But in this case I didn't want to miss what seems to be a good opportunity and because I already have a May 1000/1010 RUT Credit Put spread, I wanted to diversify the exposure using a different month.

Here goes the trade:

April RUT Iron Condor - Second adjustment

It really really sucks to have both sides of an Iron Condor threatened in the same expiration cycle. And that's exactly what happened to me with the April RUT 1020/1030/1245/1255 Iron Condor. I opened that trade back in February 24. RUT closed at 1174 that day. By March 5 RUT had rallied up to a high of 1212 and looked unstoppable. Still not close to my 1245 short Call, but because there was so much time to expiration, the 1245 short Call was showing a 30% probability of being in the money (roughly 30 deltas) and I adjusted the whole position further up to 1080/1090/1280/1290. What really sucks is that I adjusted right at the top,....RUT started to definitely go south after my adjustment. If only I had a CNBC Guru's crystal ball, I wouldn't have rolled.

Saturday, April 5, 2014

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (April 5, 2014)

It is that time of the month again where things at the office get pretty crazy and I don't even have time to scratch my balls. Oh well,

Mmmm....looks like it was a pretty fun Friday in the American markets. Solid bear candle closing near the low of the day, and specially RUT getting killed. But let me tell you something. Despite all the bearishness seen on Friday, it was still a positive week! SPX went from 1859.16 to 1865.09 for a 0.3% gain.

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (March 30, 2014)

SPX opened the week priced at 1867.67 and closed at 1857.62 on Friday, that's a 0.54% decline. The SPX is now only up 0.5% in 2014. Not quite 2013 like numbers.

Thursday, March 27, 2014

May 2014, RUT Credit Put Spread

Here's today's trade:
Buy 2 RUT May 1000 Put @4.60
Sell 2 RUT May 1010 Put @5.20

Credit: 0.60 ($120 for 2 contracts per leg)
Margin: 9.40 ($1880 for two contracts per leg)
Days to expiration: 49

Friday, March 21, 2014

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (March 21, 2014)

Ok, so March expiration is a thing of the past now. It was not a great month for me. Great is a higher than +3% return for the month. But I feel good about having a positive return despite suffering two losses. In the end it was a +0.99% portfolio growth after commissions for the March expiration cycle and the summary of all the trades can be seen here. Up to now, the model portfolio is up +5.88% year to date, and while I'm not totally satisfied with that number, I don't feel bad either as it represents +23.52% annualized. The S&P is now up only +0.9% for the year so, all is good.