Download Weekend Portfolio Analysis (2017-04-22).pdf
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The Weekend Portfolio Analysis will be available on this site next week for historical reference.
All currently open positions can be seen on the Track Record page
Last Weekend Analysis now available: Weekend Portfolio Analysis (April 15, 2017)
- April SPX Credit Put spread expires for max gain of $960. This was part of an Iron Condor whose Call side had been closed a while ago. The entire history of the Iron Condor position is here.
- April RUT Unbalanced Lazy Elephant expires for max profit of $1,396. We never had any trouble with this position.
- Initiated a June RUT Unbalanced Lazy Elephant. As explained in the previous Weekend Analysis, I would go with Elephant instead of Condor if the indexes were not more than 1% higher than their 50-day average.
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McClellan: +19 (Neutral. Up from -50 last week)
Stocks above their 20 DMA: 59% (Neutral. Up from 38% last week)
No man's land and it now looks like short term direction is back to the upside.
Once again, the oversold correction was not reached. No reason to be frustrated though: the markets have been relatively sideways for a few weeks and we have been making money without too much stress.
Decent VIX above 14 (how times change), and as a neutral market I would not sell individual Credit Calls spreads or Credit Put spreads here.
SPX still has to break that descending triangle to the upside. RUT already did and so I just drew a horizontal level at 1,393 this time. Yellow lines as usual representing the short strike prices of my positions in the symbol. Both happen to be Unbalanced Lazy Elephants in this case.
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MAY SPX/SPY 2150/2160/2440/2450/221/245 Unbalanced Elephant
$1,529 net credit, 4 weeks to expiration. Looking safe on both sides for now:
MAY RUT/IWM 1230/1240/1450/1460/126/146 Unbalanced Elephant
Net credit: $1416. Four weeks to expiration. No concerns at all after the market rebound.
JUN RUT/IWM 1220/1230/1470/1480/126/148 Unbalanced Elephant
The trade entered yesterday. Eight weeks to expiration and lots of baby-sitting ahead.
Action Plan for the Week
- No new position in the portfolio unless we suddenly reach an oversold condition. We may be about 3% away from that, so it seems unlikely. But if we reach it, I will play it via a June SPX Credit Put spread.
- Adjust Put side of May SPX Elephant if SPX reaches 2,225. Close the Call side if SPX rallies past 2,410. Do nothing if SPX stays in between the defense lines. I'd like to close this Elephant when it reaches $1,200 in open profits. We are still far from that and we are not likely to see that number this week as the position is still hovering between $600 and $700
- Adjust Put side of May RUT Elephant if RUT reaches 1,290. Close the Call side if RUT rallies past 1,415. Do nothing with this position if RUT stays in between the defense lines.
- Adjust Put side of June RUT Elephant if RUT reaches 1,290. Close the Call side if RUT rallies past 1,440. Do nothing with this position if RUT stays in between the defense lines.
So, I'm basically going to be in defensive mode and chances are no new trades will be added.
The LT Trend Sniper system is still long Gold (via XAUUSD). Some progress was made early in the week that trigger another Stop Loss move (SL is now only 1/4 the distance of the original SL). After that there was some temporary weakness that almost kicked the Sniper out of the position.
If you want to learn more about this fully automated trend following system, feel free to read this article.
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence. New Home Sales.
Thursday: US Core Durable Goods and Pending Home Sales. European Central Bank Conference.
Friday: Europe's CPI. US GDP.
Good luck this week my friends,
If you are interested in a responsible and sustainable way of trading options for consistent income with solid risk management, consider acquiring LTOptions, my options trading system to the last detail.
Check out 2017 Track Record