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Sunday, November 8, 2015

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (November 8, 2015)

Today is the day. I'm 33 years old,...sigh, one year closer to death. I'm not sure what the excitement is about a birth anniversary, but people tend to give importance to this 24 hour interval. Naturally there's some sort of party or surprise thing going on and I have been asked, ordered in fact, to be totally free by 2PM. So, I must hurry up with this article today. Apologies if it ends up shorter than usual.

Market conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 71 (neutral)
McClellan: -14 (neutral)
Number of stocks above their 20 DMA: 62% (neutral)

Absolute no man's land. You know the drill from here: Not the ideal time for individual credit spreads. Also with a VIX in the low 14's it is getting tough to do anything right here.


November positions
SPX 1630/1640/2160/2165 Iron Condor
88% probability of success. Two weeks to expiration. All looking good.

SPX 1945/1950 Credit Put spread
99% probability of success. There shouldn't be any problem.


December
SPX 1880/1885/2190/2195 Iron Condor
Looking good. No concerns here.

RUT 1010/1015/1240/1245 Iron Condor
With RUT at 1199 the Call side here may need my attention. Adjustment point currently set at 1210 for this week. This Iron Condor is half the usual size that I play on Iron Condors. It would be a small loss. If the adjustment is needed I will deploy full position above 1275.


Action Plan for the week
If RUT rallies I will adjust the small December Iron Condor as explained above.

If RUT sells off, I will get out of the Call side of the Iron Condor looking for a break even result on that leg.

No plans for new trades.


Forex
The LT Trend Sniper robot initiated its 6th and possibly last position of the year: Short EURUSD at 1.08638 on Wednesday. The Euro fell a decent number of pips on Friday and the position is looking good at the moment. Remember this is my long-term trend follower system and a position may take months to close. In fact that is always my desire as the longer the system stays in a position, the stronger the trend being ridden.

(Click on image to enlarge)
Entry line in green, Stop Loss line in red 194 pips higher.


Economic Calendar
Monday: China's CPI
Wednesday: China's Industrial Production
Thursday: US Crude Oil Inventories
Friday: Europe GDP. US Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, PPI.

Good luck this week folks!

LT

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