Yesterday was September expiration. The two September positions expired worthless for max profit and the portfolio growth Year to Date is now +17.88%. That's a pretty decent return for 9 months. Don't be fooled by the way most sites report their returns. Also read my take on what realistic portfolio returns look like.
SPX went from 1986.04 to 2010.40 this week for a 1.23% gain. The index is now up +8.7% year to date.
I didn't enter new trades and that makes it 32 days. New personal record. I feel relaxed and with plenty of energy to play offense now.
Market conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 82 (overbought)
McClellan: -91(neutral)
36% of stocks are trading above their 20 Day Moving Average (neutral)
Last week 40% of stocks were trading above the 20 DMA, yet the price of SPX was more than 1% lower. Now SPX is above 2000 and yet, a smaller number of stocks is trading above their 20 DMA. Interesting. Makes me think the market is not so strong right now. But I don't trade based on that circumstantial evidence. This is no man's land and period. No individual credit spreads until an extreme is reached.
October positions
RUT 1020/1030/1230/1240 Iron Condor: 91% probability of success with 27 days to expiration. RUT priced at 1146.92. This thing's starting to look more and more like a winner. No concerns at all.
Action plan for the week
It feels so nice to be 85% in cash and knowing that the portion you do have in play looks really strong. That's where I am right now, but this laziness will come to an end soon. It's time to play offense.
We may reach an oversold extreme in the next few days as measured by the 3 indicators I follow day after day. RUT is more oversold than SPX. If the markets hits a short term oversold extreme I will sell the November 970/980 RUT credit Put spread for at least 0.60 credit.
If the market doesn't reach a short term extreme, I will likely open a November Iron Condor on SPX. I'd like 1835/1840/2100/2105 if possible with a credit of 0.80. That's what I'd like. These numbers change from here to Friday. If I cannot sell the 2100/2105 Call side (safely above the projected trend-line), then I'll probably go with a RUT Iron Condor instead. I would like the Call side of that Iron Condor to be at least 1240/1250, but preferably 1250/1260. November is historically one of the strongest months of the year. Since 1950 there have been 42 positive Novembers and 22 negative ones. The average return is +1.35% which is calculated including the losing instances. Only December (49 times up vs 15 down and +1.62% average return) and April (43 up, 21 down, +1.38% avg. return) are historically stronger than November. So, time to be careful.
Forex
When it looked like LT Trend Sniper System would exit the short EURUSD position initiated on July 17, Wednesday happened and the EUR made a new 8 day closing low. For this reason the position is still in play. Ever since the trade was opened, the previous day closing price has never been an 8 day closing high. At the same time, no 8 consecutive days have gone by without the instrument making a new low. Those are the two exit conditions, and neither one has been met.
EURUSD is now trading at 1.28277, that is a 692 pip gain since the 1.3524 open. The stop loss had originally been placed 83.2 pips away risking 3% of the portfolio. That means the reward so far is 8.32 times the original risk specified for the trade. So, a portfolio growth of 24.96% by just following this monster down trend. This trade has been exceptional, the largest gain on a single trade ever (EURUSD data going back to January 1, 2000). The position will be closed only if EURUSD closes above 1.2958 any day this upcoming week. The robot is still in forward testing mode with paper money (21 months now) and hasn't been released to the public yet. Although there has never been any secrecy with the rules of the system and everybody is free to trade it manually
Economic Calendar
Monday: US Existing Home Sales. Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI.
Tuesday: German Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: US New Home Sales
Thursday: Durable Good Orders
Friday: US GDP, Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Good luck this week folks!
Check out 2014 Track Record
SPX went from 1986.04 to 2010.40 this week for a 1.23% gain. The index is now up +8.7% year to date.
I didn't enter new trades and that makes it 32 days. New personal record. I feel relaxed and with plenty of energy to play offense now.
Market conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
McClellan: -91(neutral)
36% of stocks are trading above their 20 Day Moving Average (neutral)
Last week 40% of stocks were trading above the 20 DMA, yet the price of SPX was more than 1% lower. Now SPX is above 2000 and yet, a smaller number of stocks is trading above their 20 DMA. Interesting. Makes me think the market is not so strong right now. But I don't trade based on that circumstantial evidence. This is no man's land and period. No individual credit spreads until an extreme is reached.
October positions
RUT 1020/1030/1230/1240 Iron Condor: 91% probability of success with 27 days to expiration. RUT priced at 1146.92. This thing's starting to look more and more like a winner. No concerns at all.
Action plan for the week
It feels so nice to be 85% in cash and knowing that the portion you do have in play looks really strong. That's where I am right now, but this laziness will come to an end soon. It's time to play offense.
We may reach an oversold extreme in the next few days as measured by the 3 indicators I follow day after day. RUT is more oversold than SPX. If the markets hits a short term oversold extreme I will sell the November 970/980 RUT credit Put spread for at least 0.60 credit.
If the market doesn't reach a short term extreme, I will likely open a November Iron Condor on SPX. I'd like 1835/1840/2100/2105 if possible with a credit of 0.80. That's what I'd like. These numbers change from here to Friday. If I cannot sell the 2100/2105 Call side (safely above the projected trend-line), then I'll probably go with a RUT Iron Condor instead. I would like the Call side of that Iron Condor to be at least 1240/1250, but preferably 1250/1260. November is historically one of the strongest months of the year. Since 1950 there have been 42 positive Novembers and 22 negative ones. The average return is +1.35% which is calculated including the losing instances. Only December (49 times up vs 15 down and +1.62% average return) and April (43 up, 21 down, +1.38% avg. return) are historically stronger than November. So, time to be careful.
Forex
When it looked like LT Trend Sniper System would exit the short EURUSD position initiated on July 17, Wednesday happened and the EUR made a new 8 day closing low. For this reason the position is still in play. Ever since the trade was opened, the previous day closing price has never been an 8 day closing high. At the same time, no 8 consecutive days have gone by without the instrument making a new low. Those are the two exit conditions, and neither one has been met.
EURUSD is now trading at 1.28277, that is a 692 pip gain since the 1.3524 open. The stop loss had originally been placed 83.2 pips away risking 3% of the portfolio. That means the reward so far is 8.32 times the original risk specified for the trade. So, a portfolio growth of 24.96% by just following this monster down trend. This trade has been exceptional, the largest gain on a single trade ever (EURUSD data going back to January 1, 2000). The position will be closed only if EURUSD closes above 1.2958 any day this upcoming week. The robot is still in forward testing mode with paper money (21 months now) and hasn't been released to the public yet. Although there has never been any secrecy with the rules of the system and everybody is free to trade it manually
Economic Calendar
Monday: US Existing Home Sales. Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI.
Tuesday: German Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: US New Home Sales
Thursday: Durable Good Orders
Friday: US GDP, Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Good luck this week folks!
Check out 2014 Track Record
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