The S&P500 is now up 1.7% for the year. The Dow Jones is down 0.4% and the Russell 2000 index is down by 3.3%. It's already May. If you are under performing this market, that means your portfolio growth so far this year is less than 1.7%. Consider buying SPY shares at the beginning of next year and forget about the markets. You will spend dramatically less in commissions; you won't be wasting your neurons day-in and day-out in front of a computer; you will be less stressed out and you will have a better and more fulfilling sex life.
Yellow horizontal lines below represent the short strikes of my May SPX Iron Condor and June SPX Iron Condor.
(Click on Image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 86 (overbought)
McClellan: +50 (neutral)
48% of stocks are trading above their 20 Day Moving Average (neutral)
No man's land here. The long term uptrend is still intact. I won't enter new positions until we reach a market extreme. Right now I'm more than happy doing nothing rather than entering directional trades where I see no edge.
SPX 1695/1700/1960/1965 Iron Condor 95% probability of success, 13 days to expiration. It's pretty safe to say this will be a full winner.
RUT 1000/1010 Bull Put Spread 99% probability of success, like the girlfriend I never had (Can you imagine a 99% probability of success girlfriend?!?!)
RUT 920/930 Bull Put Spread 99% probability of success and well out of the money.
SPX 1710/1715/1965/1970 Iron Condor 79% probability of success. Like old wine, getting better and better as it ages.
Action plan for the week
No new trades for me.
The June SPX 1710/1715/1965/1970 Iron Condor is the center of my attention and it doesn't seem likely to be threatened this week. The rest of the positions are not a concern any more.
The May expiration cycle is shaping up to bring a solid +4% growth for the portfolio. June's also looking pretty good so far.
Sunday: Chinese Manufacturing PMI
Monday: US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Tuesday: US Trade Balance
Wednesday: Chinese Trade Balance.
Thursday: US Initial Jobless claims and Chinese CPI
Take it easy folks.
Check out 2014 Track Record