Last week was May expiration and with it my two May positions expired worthless for full profit.
May was a quiet and solid month for the portfolio, bringing in a 4.11% growth. I'm now up +6.50% for the year.
This week the SPX Index went from 1876.66 to 1900.53, a pretty good week for the markets resulting in a +1.27% increase. The index is now up 3% year to date.
(Click on Image to enlarge)
McClellan: +50 (neutral)
60% of stocks are trading above their 20 Day Moving Average (neutral)
We're in no man's land and I won't enter new trades until the market reaches an overbought or oversold extreme. If we don't reach it, so be it. I'm more than happy entering just one Iron Condor per cycle.
RUT 920/930 Bull Put Spread 99% probability of success and well out of the money.
SPX 1710/1715/1965/1970 Iron Condor 85% probability of success with 26 days to go. With SPX at 1900 I think this position is not looking bad. At this very moment SPX would have to rally up to at least 1940 on Tuesday in order for the short 1965 Call to reach a 30% probability of being in the money. Obviously the market won't do that immediately, and in the mean time theta decay keeps working. It's very unlikely for this position to be threatened this week.
SPX 1735/1740/1975/1980 Iron Condor This was the trade entered 2 days ago. There's not much to say here.
Action plan for the week
Both June positions are in safe territory for the upcoming week. The July SPX Iron Condor is very young so it shouldn't be threatened any time soon. All this leaves me open to entering new positions, but as usual, not at this time. I want to enter a credit spread, I don't care if a bullish one or a bearish one, but I need to see a market extreme. SPX 1920 would be a good point to start thinking about deploying out of the money Bear Call spreads. SPX 1840 - 1850 could attract me on the way down before selling out of the money Credit Put spreads. If we don't reach a short term extreme this week then I won't do anything.
Monday: US Markets closed.
Tuesday: Core Durable Good Orders, CB Consumer Confidence. ECB President Draghi speaks
Thursday: GDP, Pending Home Sales
Good luck this week folks!
Check out 2014 Track Record