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Sunday, March 25, 2012

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (03-25-2012)

It was a predominantly bearish week, but showing strength during the US session. Weakness overnight in Europe that was reversed later during the US session. That's how in spite of having 4 bull daily candles out of 5, the S&P500 lost -0.3% this week according to Finviz.

Now, some basic chart analysis on the SPY ETF.
(Click on image to enlarge)

I took advantage of the slight pull back and closed the 145/147 Bear call Spread on SPY. Looking at the chart you can see that the uptrend channel hasn't been broken. Nor the short term one nor the longer term one. And I believe the 145 strike could have been threatened by April 20.

On the other hand, the 70/72 Bull Call Spread on IWM looks really comfortable with IWM sitting at 82.68 and I don't plan to close it for now. This is the only position in the portfolio now, and it would be good to add a Bear Call spread side to it, to form an Iron Condor, but this is not the time to do it. I need a good move up that inflates the Call options a little.

A lot of economic data this week with Fed Surveys and also Fed Speakers. Window dressing by end of month could also support this market and also anticipation before the new earnings cycle that begins in April. Again, I believe we are going up from here, and patience is needed to deploy the Bear Call spreads when the premium in them is worth it after significant moves up.

Have a nice week y'all!

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