As you know, I closed the IWM 76/74 March credit spread for a small profit. I admit it, I chickened out completely. Closing the spread when IWM was around 79 and my breakeven being bellow 76. It hurts to leave early and leave so much juice on the table. I think I should have waited and opened the IWM 72/70 April credit spread only if I was forced to close the IWM 76/74 March. But given that I opened the IWM 72/70 April, suddenly I had too much downside exposure. If I hadn't opened the 72/70 April, I wouldn't have closed the 76/74 March which would have probably expired this coming week for full profit. Just a good lesson.
Now the two remaining positions in the March portfolio:
The IWM 88/90 March spread looks really comfortable. With IWM sitting at 81.60, it would need to go up almost 7 points (more than 8%) to affect this position. This trade should return full profit of $350 by this Friday.
The SPY 141/143 March spread, although not as comfortable, looks nice too. With SPY sitting at 137.57, it would need a +35 point move in a week. Something unlikely, but definitely possible, who knows. Hopefully I win sometime as the market tries to break resistance and fights in that area for a while. If this SPY is threatened this week, I will try to open a new SPY Call Credit spread in April taking advantage of overbought conditions by then.
Overall, the portfolio beta-weighted vs S&P500 shows a positive outcome of +$672 this week as long as the markets don't reach 1410. Almost 90% probability in our favor.
As for the market this week, I believe the momentum is set for the up side. Although a second rejection of the 1380 level might be harsh. Oscillators (RSI, Stochastics etc) are pointing up and now far from overbought. Only 51% of stocks are above their 20SMA. Plus US reports this week were good which gives confidence.
There will be plenty of activity in respect with news with Industrial Production, CPI/PPI, Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales and Philly Fed. Also, the FOMC minutes. So, probably a week with substance.
Have fun with this market guys, at least it hasn't been as crazy as last year's so far.
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