Without a doubt, this was the worst week (Credit Spreads trading wise) since I started writing on this site seven years ago. So far in 2018, not a single Iron Condor or Elephant has worked. They have been either hurt on the Call side, or on the Put side, or both.
Despite inevitable bad streaks in the past, I was never down more than 15%. Well, this time I am. 27% to be precise. And it is important to make a pause an analyze why this happened.
- Aggressiveness on the Call side. I started the year finding myself on a couple of 2:1 Iron Condors. Thinking we were too overextended to the upside, I became aggressive using 2:1 ratios instead of the 4:1. Well, I was right that the markets had gone too far up, but not right on the timing. The 4:1's were the variation to play, and not only looking at it in retrospective. No. That was the variation to play, simply because that is the one. The one profoundly learned after years experiencing how uncomfortable an inefficient it is to defend the Call side. Playing aggressive Call sides led to taking unnecessary additional losses, which, later led me to try to make up by selling more Credit Put spreads than usual, and that causes to the second problem.
- Risk Concentration. On Monday there was a point where I was riding five different Credit Put spreads. This is sacrilegious in the original LTOptions materials, where riding three spreads on the same direction was deemed the max healthy limit. Talking about concentration. In the previous weekend analysis, I mentioned that one of two RUT Credit Put spreads needed to be closed due to similarities in the projected adjustment point. I could have done it early on at a small loss or a scratch on Monday, and not taken two losses as it eventually happened.
Not being aggressive on the Call side on the way up would have made my losses smaller. Consequently the desire to make up for them quickly (by selling more Puts) would have been smaller, leading to less risk concentration on the Put side and eventually smaller losses on that side of the spectrum too. Losses would have existed. No doubt about that, but the draw-down I'm seeing today would have been way smaller (around 10% instead of 27%).
I could mention other mistakes, like thinking that markets don't crash from all-time highs. Another confirmation that markets can do anything at any time including breaking any previous record of whatever stat you are looking at. Finally complacency. Years of relentless bullish action that lead to overconfidence on the Put side.
The original principles of the system are fine, and I'm going back to them. It is rarely the strategy who fails when it has been designed with risk calculation in mind. It is usually leverage that kills you. And this is a case of that.
It is at times like this one when most just want to throw the towel. And I get it.....
I had a conversation on the phone this week with someone who wanted to end his life due to recent losses in the market. I tried to somehow talk him out of that. This is a tough game. The market is serious stuff with real lives and destinies being affected. Anyone who says otherwise is full of it.
...For me, throwing the towel, walking away and never writing again would have been the easy way out. I won't. I never will. Even if I finish the year down 100% and end up totally ridiculed. At least, that would leave more value on one corner of the Internet. A legacy about "what one must absolutely not do when trading Credit Spreads".
