Weekend Portfolio Analysis (September 9, 2017)

This week's analysis has been published at LTOptions.com

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The Weekend Portfolio Analysis will be available on this site next week for historical reference.

All currently open positions can be seen on the Track Record page


Last Weekend Analysis now publicly available: Weekend Portfolio Analysis (September 2, 2017) 

Recent Trading Activity

- Initiated an October RUT 1270/1280/1470/1480/130/148 Unbalanced Elephant for a $1,317 credit on Thursday.

Market Conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)

Stochastics: 66 (Neutral. Down from 93 last week)
McClellan: +39 (Neutral. Down from +134 last week)
Stocks above their 20 DMA: 60% (Neutral. Up from 69% last week)

No man's land.

We were close to overbought last week and I thought price would still move a little higher and reach that overbought extreme. It didn't happen. This is part of the beauty of trading far out of the money, where incorrect market predictions in the short term don't prevent you from making money. In fact, all the existing positions are looking great and Time decay continues to work in our favor. The SPX still inside that horizontal channel which will be my guideline for now until broken either to the up or down side.

The Russell 2000:
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No interesting moves here, which is good. Russell continues to trade below long term resistance and I will continue to use that horizontal line (1,340) as support.

Current Portfolio

SEP RUT 1240/1250 Credit Put spread
SEP IWM 148 Long Calls
What is left of the September Elephant.
Net Credit: $840. One week to expiration.
(Click on image to enlarge)

Will expire for max profit this week.


OCT SPX 2250/2260/2540/2545 Unbalanced Iron Condor
Net Credit of $1,500 and Six weeks to expiration. Looking comfortable with 8 deltas on both sides.
(Click on image to enlarge)

Defense lines: 2,330 to the downside and 2,535 to the upside (waiting until about 45 deltas given the low risk exposure on the Call side).


OCT RUT-IWM 1270/1280/1470/1480/130/148 Unbalanced Elephant
Net Credit of $1,317 Six weeks to expiration. This is the position entered 48 hours ago. Lots of baby-sitting ahead.
(Click on image to enlarge)

Defense lines: 1,330 (adjust Put side) and 1,455 (close Call side at a loss and continue riding the Put side, whose net credit is greater than the Call side loss at RUT 1,455)


DEC SPY 253 Calls
Small bullish speculative play from August 18th. Three contracts at 1.50 debit each.
Current value of these contracts is 2.16. I'll leave them as potential upside hedge for any Credit Call spreads that are threatened in the portfolio.

Action Plan for the Week

- No concerns with any of the existing positions. There should be no need to defend/adjust anything this week.

- Let the September RUT Credit Put spread (1250/1240) expire for max gain. Also let the IWM 148 Calls expire. Net-net it will be an $840 profit.

- I will take the 2540/2545 Credit Call spread side of the October SPX Unbalanced Iron Condor off for 0.10 - 0.15 debit if the markets were to fall and give me that price. Because the original credit was 0.50, closing at those debit would represent  0.35 - 0.40 gain per spread. For that to happen, the Credit Call spread would have to go down to 4 deltas. That would be a decline of 30 SPX points or so.

- Initiate an November RUT Credit Put spread at 10 deltas if the market were to suddenly reach a short-term oversold condition.



Forex
The LT Trend Sniper system made some nice progress on its Gold (XAUUSD) position this week:

The Stop Loss level is now way above the entry level, so this is a guaranteed winning trade at this point (at least +2.0% boost for the portfolio if Gold retraces this week back to that dotted green line stop loss level). The Sniper may also exit the position by Friday if no closing above 1347.806 takes place throughout the week. So, far this has been a nice trade: Entry at 1314.796, after triple top resistance was broken. Current price 1345.739. That's 31 gold points in favor so far.

A new Buy EURUSD was triggered this week. This is the seventh EURUSD position this year. All of them have been BUY signals:

Stop Loss has been moved up once, reducing risk in the position from 3% of the portfolio to 2.25%.

More details about the LT Trend Sniper automated trading system can be read here.
Forex results are tracked here.


Economic Calendar

Tuesday: JOLTs Job Openings
Wednesday: US PPI. China's Industrial Production.
Thursday: US CPI and Core CPI
Friday: Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Business Inventories.


Good luck this week my friends.
LT


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