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Saturday, March 31, 2018

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (March 31, 2018)

This week's analysis has been published at LTOptions.com

Download Weekend Portfolio Analysis (2018-03-31).pdf

If the above link doesn't work for you, simply log in to LTOptions.com, navigate to the "Weekly Analysis" tab and download the document from there.

The Weekend Portfolio Analysis will be available on this site next week for historical reference.

All currently open positions can be seen on the 2018 Track Record page


Last Weekend Analysis now publicly available:
Weekend Portfolio Analysis (March 23, 2018) 
Recent Trading Activity

- No Activity.

Market Conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 21 (Neutral. Up from 6)
McClellan: -8 (Neutral. Up from -195)
Stocks above their 20 DMA: 32% (Neutral. Up from 23%)

No man's land

It was an interesting week in that, support held beautifully. That red diagonal line. It never ceases to amaze me how those lines work so many times. I'll continue using that uptrend channel as my guideline. And I think, even though the oversold condition was alleviated, there is more upside than downside room at this point.

VIX-wise, we're still at an attractive 19.97. That, combined with the "No man's land condition" makes it a good time to deploy neutral(ish) plays: namely Elephants or Condors, which I intend to do this upcoming week.

The Russell Index:
(Click on image to enlarge)



Current Portfolio:
The SPY Calls and SVXY Calls expire in December and January of next year. All bullish bets on a market rebound.

Let's now look at the income plays.


Apr. SPX/SPY 2440/2450/2890/2900 - 290 Elephant
Net Credit: $1,608 and three weeks to expiration.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Defense line: 2,520 (adjust the Put side). 2,835 to the upside (close Calls at a loss and don't do anything else. Although that price level is extremely unlikely at this point).


Apr. RUT/IWM 1450/1460/1670/1680 - 148/168 Elephant
Net Credit: $1,445 and four weeks to expiration
(Click on image to enlarge)
Defense line: 1,490 (adjust the Put side). 1,645 on the way up (close Calls at a loss, keep riding the Puts).


May SPX 2250/2240 Credit Put spread
Net Credit: $1,200. Seven weeks to expiration.
Very comfortable. Well Out of the Money.
(Click on image to enlarge)

Action Plan for the Week

- The main goal this week will be to initiate the second May position. Now, in order to do that, I want to liquidate one of the April positions. I want to avoid quadruple exposure. I'll be leaving only one April position on and start carrying two May positions. The one I want to close is the SPX April Elephant, at whichever profit I can get. The new position to deploy will use RUT May options and I'm inclined once again to use an Elephant.

- Other than that, keep looking at the April RUT Elephant for a possible downside adjustment, although it looks much better now than it did last week.



Economic Calendar

Monday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Tuesday: Europe Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: Europe CPI. ADP Non-Farm Employment change. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
Friday: US Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate.

Good luck this week my friends,
LT


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Check out 2018 Track Record


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