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Saturday, March 11, 2017

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (March 11, 2017)

This week's analysis has been published at

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The Weekend Portfolio Analysis will be available on this site next week for historical reference.

All currently open positions can be seen on the Track Record page

Related Article: Weekend Portfolio Analysis (March 4, 2017) 
Recent Trading Activity

- Closed March RUT Unbalanced Elephant for a $1,210 gain on Monday

- Closed the May SPX 2520/2530 Credit Call spread for a $750 gain on Thursday

In addition, I tried to enter a new position on Friday using April options. I was a little divided because we were not totally oversold according to the rules but very very close to it. So, I first tried a RUT Elephant, which never got filled. Then I tried a 1250/1240 Credit Put spread. No luck either. Changed it to 1260/1250, no fills. The market rebounded in the afternoon so I tried an Elephant again and, no fills. Tough Friday. I was busy at work too, which made it a bit more complicated. I'll add the new position on Monday.

Market Conditions

(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 23 (neutral)
McClellan: -186 (oversold)
Stocks above their 20 DMA: 35% (neutral)

No man's land. Close to short term oversold.

The index is now 2.7% higher than its own 50-Day average. More reasonable than 4.6% at one point the previous week, which was extreme. What concerns me a little bit, regarding Call spread positions, is the fact that all three indicators quickly went near oversold territory and yet the SPX index has barely gone down. RUT was weaker on the other hand, but now we are in a situation where there is some upside room.

And here's the Russell 2000, where I have no position at the moment:
(Click on image to enlarge)
Now below its 50-Day average and clearly more oversold than the SPX. I haven't ruled out the possibility of initiating an April Credit Put spread position here on Monday instead of an Elephant. We'll see if we get a weak opening.

Current Portfolio

MAR SPX 2090/2100 Credit Put spread hedged with SPY 214 Put
Max potential profit of $1,074. One week to expiration and no concerns. I won't touch it.

APR SPX 2175/2180/2455/2460 Unbalanced Iron Condor
$2,000 credit. 6 weeks to expiration. Put side comfortable at 7 deltas. Call side now comfortable, down to 9 deltas (from 17 last weekend and from 23 deltas reached on March 1st).

(Click on image to enlarge)
Decision point to the upside is now somewhere between 2,420 and 2,425. By looking at the Option chain, those levels (2420 and 2425) have somewhere between 20%-23% chance of happening. At the same time, given the pressure I felt earlier with this 2455/2460 Credit Call spread, I am now inclined to close it for break-even if possible. I wanted to close it for 50% of max profit this past week, but despite the indicators reaching near short term oversold conditions all I could see in this spread in particular were tiny gains and mostly a scratch most of the time.

Action Plan for the Week

- Let the March 2100/2090 Credit Put spread expire for max profit on Friday.

- The April SPX Unbalanced Iron Condor. If SPX reaches 2,420-2,425 this week (2,455 strike price reaching 30 deltas), the 2455/2460 Call side will be adjusted up to 2500/2510 or something similar. If a 1.00 Credit for this spread is not possible, I will go to May in order to position it higher, in the 2,535 neighborhood and with a greater number of contracts. At the same time, if I can close this 2455/2460 problem child for 0.50 debit, I will take it off the table (initial credit received was 0.52, so it would be a scratch when commissions are factored in).

- Inventory is light. I will be entering the second April position on Monday. With a weak opening I will default to RUT Credit Put spread around 1,260 or 1,250. On a strong opening I will use an Unbalanced Lazy Elephant following the usual guidelines described here.

Economic Calendar
We have the Fed Rate decision in the calendar this week. That will be on Wednesday. So, there's a chance the markets will be in waiting mode (barely moving) until then.

Monday: China's Industrial Production
Tuesday: US PPI, German ZEW Economic Sentiment
Wednesday: US Retail Sales. Crude Oil Inventories. FED meeting and Interest Rate decision
Thursday: Europe's CPI. US Building Permits, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Index

Good luck this week folks,

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