"The markets have been insane lately. Do you have strong faith that the lazy trader option selling strategies will continue to generate steady and stable reasonable 1%-4% returns a month? No intend to doubt you, just want some reassurance. Can you provide it?" - Karl
Of course Karl. That's why I exist. So here it goes:
"We'll be just fine"
Did that help?
Was that enough?
Sadly there is nothing I say that will make you believe me. You simply have the right to not believe, because, well, nobody knows where the markets are going and whether or not your strategy of choice will be the perfect fit for the upcoming unknown conditions. So, even if I tell you, "Yes, the strategy works" you are probably not going to put faith on any individual's words, and it's totally your right, especially if you have lost money, felt the pain and know firsthand how tough trading can be.
So, if you are asking a question to which there is no answer that can possibly satisfy you, then why ask it in the first place?
By the way it is not my strategy. I didn't invent credit spreads, just adopted them as so many others and trade them with a special flavor and very conservatively. The strategy, as any trading strategy, will have losing trades, and it will have losing periods.
But Karl, if one thing you have that simply didn't exist just a few years ago, is, nowadays you have a bunch of folks publicly doing it while sharing transparent track records, many of which you can find in the comments section of this blog. You also have yours truly sharing all the trades through the process...and by the way doing it for free for the 4th year now (writing on this site for more than 5 years) Sharing the bad times and the good ones. Hiding nothing. If I wanted to make more sales selling a course, and if that was the only thing I cared about, I would not publish my trades, because that would leave an aura of "invincibility" intact on the internet. I would not be "risking" my, let's call it "prestige?" And that's what gurus do. They don't publish their trades because they don't want to look "normal", "vulnerable". They don't want for people to see that they are not unique or special. Gurus don't want for people to doubt them and see they have losing periods of months or years too and above all, they generally lack confidence in their approach. Therefore, they don't publish their trades, perhaps never even trade with real money, but spend hours writing about the markets or posting non-sense on Twitter, gaining more followers and credibility to continue selling materials and making money as gurus and not real traders. That's why track records are nowhere to be found. Otherwise they would show them. Absolutely. Think like a guru. If you were a guru and you had a legit track record that shows consistent +30% returns per year for a decade, wouldn't you show it off?
You will see me trading, through the good and the bad. Like in 2013 where I started the year with a 14% draw-down from the get go. Yeah it sucked blogging back then, but I kept coming. You will see me with a market up 20% or down 20%, because this is my number one passion in life. And it's not my words, but time. Only time will tell you. Only time might provide you with some reassurance. Time and hard evidence... facts. Yes, there will be losses along the way. Of course. That's what makes it interesting. If you are a follower of this site you recently saw me trade through a losing September. I'll probably have a break-even October, but as long as my losses are under control, and they will be, I should finish the year solid. Good times will come again.
"I've been burned following other newsletters over the years, in fact all of them have looked wonderful in paper, only to eventually disappoint and make me lose money without exception. I've been thinking of stopping. Are the markets rigged?"
No. That's what frustrated people say when they lose. People always need someone to blame in order to feel better about themselves.
Our minds are rigged. Trading will always be difficult, because in order to do it successfully you must always go against your basic survival, herd instincts. You must always go against your ego, you must always go against your fear. Easy to say, but hard as hell to execute. That's why so few people do it successfully for a long time.
As for premium newsletters. I agree that most don't know what they are doing. In their effort to show 60% annual returns they leave a lot to be desired in the area of risk management and eventually end up blowing up. They are like finding a needle in the haystack. I'm not against trading newsletters (not against the honest/good ones). In fact having a trading coach, someone who knows what he is doing is truly valuable and may save you hundreds of hours of frustration and thousands of hair follicles in your head. A good trading coach can speed up your road to sustainable profitability, but newsletters will have losing periods as well, and you will have a tendency to join them where they are doing good and the next draw-down is just around the corner. Trading newsletters are a stage in your evolution as a trader. A stage that all successful traders eventually grow out of. Generating your own ideas and trading them with confidence is the only road to being truly free and successful as a trader in the long run. You don't need a 'guru'. You only need to learn to be your own 'guru'.
Take a break Karl.
Paper trade. Paper trade well.
Do it for months or even a year.
When ready for real money, start with such a small amount that you literally don't care about it. The confidence will come from within yourself and not because someone else magically provides it to you.
If you are interested in a responsible and sustainable way of trading options for consistent income, consider acquiring LTOptions, my options trading system revealed to the last detail.