The SPX index barely moved this week, from a starting point of 1962.92 on Monday to a close of 1960.96 on Friday. This is really boring,.......but boring is good. The less you have to move your pieces the better, because it means time decay is working in your favor on your existing positions and it also means you're being less ripped off on commissions. Let's move over to the market conditions segment.
Market conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 73 (neutral)
McClellan: +43 (neutral)
67% of stocks are trading above their 20 Day Moving Average (neutral)
No man's land. I won't enter new positions until we reach a more extreme market. The market is closer to a short term overbought extreme than to an oversold one. But unlike last week, it is now in a more neutral stage and has more room to move in either direction.
July Positions
SPX 1735/1740/2010/2015 Iron Condor 82% probability of success with only 19 days to July expiration. Looking good.
SPY 191/197 Double Put Calendar Spread Calendars are slow moving animals. I've had this one for a while and it has barely made any profit. But at the same time that means, they are not the weapons of mass destruction that Vertical spreads can be when they go wrong. I'm not concerned with this position. It won't hurt me. Unfortunately, what looked like a max potential profit of +$300 initially, has gone down to +$170 and that is because of the fact that volatility has gone down since I opend this position. Calendars are extremely susceptible to volatility changes.
(Click on image to enlarge)
SPX 1805/1810 Put spread Very comfortable. No concerns here.
August Positions
RUT 1050/1060/1260/1270 Iron Condor. 80% probability of success, no concerns here so far, still a lot of time decay left in this position with 47 days to expiration. The name of the game here is "Wait".
Action plan for the week
Again I'm not really concerned with July positions right now. If SPX hits 2000 then I will consider the July Iron Condor to be in danger and I will also close the SPY Double Put Calendar spread. I think SPX 2000 is unlikely this week, so time to do nothing.
The August RUT Iron Condor looks comfortable so far. Unlikely to be threatened in just one week. If we suddenly reach a market extreme, I will probably add an August position against the move whether it is up or down. But, again I think a market extreme is unlikely to be reached in just one week. So, to sum up, there will probably be nothing to do this week either.
Economic Calendar
As usual the first week of the month, this one will be pretty active with a lot of data coming out. We'll see if this moves the markets significantly.
Monday: European CPI, Chinese PMI, US pending Home sales
Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: European GDP, ADP Non Farm Employment change, Fed Chair Yellen speaks.
Thursday: Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Good luck this week folks!
Check out 2014 Track Record
Market conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
McClellan: +43 (neutral)
67% of stocks are trading above their 20 Day Moving Average (neutral)
No man's land. I won't enter new positions until we reach a more extreme market. The market is closer to a short term overbought extreme than to an oversold one. But unlike last week, it is now in a more neutral stage and has more room to move in either direction.
July Positions
SPX 1735/1740/2010/2015 Iron Condor 82% probability of success with only 19 days to July expiration. Looking good.
SPY 191/197 Double Put Calendar Spread Calendars are slow moving animals. I've had this one for a while and it has barely made any profit. But at the same time that means, they are not the weapons of mass destruction that Vertical spreads can be when they go wrong. I'm not concerned with this position. It won't hurt me. Unfortunately, what looked like a max potential profit of +$300 initially, has gone down to +$170 and that is because of the fact that volatility has gone down since I opend this position. Calendars are extremely susceptible to volatility changes.
(Click on image to enlarge)
SPX 1805/1810 Put spread Very comfortable. No concerns here.
August Positions
RUT 1050/1060/1260/1270 Iron Condor. 80% probability of success, no concerns here so far, still a lot of time decay left in this position with 47 days to expiration. The name of the game here is "Wait".
Action plan for the week
Again I'm not really concerned with July positions right now. If SPX hits 2000 then I will consider the July Iron Condor to be in danger and I will also close the SPY Double Put Calendar spread. I think SPX 2000 is unlikely this week, so time to do nothing.
The August RUT Iron Condor looks comfortable so far. Unlikely to be threatened in just one week. If we suddenly reach a market extreme, I will probably add an August position against the move whether it is up or down. But, again I think a market extreme is unlikely to be reached in just one week. So, to sum up, there will probably be nothing to do this week either.
Economic Calendar
As usual the first week of the month, this one will be pretty active with a lot of data coming out. We'll see if this moves the markets significantly.
Monday: European CPI, Chinese PMI, US pending Home sales
Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: European GDP, ADP Non Farm Employment change, Fed Chair Yellen speaks.
Thursday: Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Good luck this week folks!
Check out 2014 Track Record
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