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McClellan: +52 (neutral)
72% of stocks are trading above their 20 Day Moving Average (overbought)
Close to the top of the channel, close to fully overbought territory. The upside is limited in my opinion, and slow if it continues. I think it won't be in super rally mode given current indicators' values.
SPX 1735/1740/2010/2015 Iron Condor Still doing pretty good here, now with 4 weeks to go. I'm not concerned about this Iron Condor after the adjustment made on the Call side.
SPY 191/197 Double Put Calendar Spread The VIX has kept going down and that has hurt this double calendar. The profitability range has shrunk and the max profit potential in the picture has decreased considerably. Here's a case of a trade that gurus out there would applaud as it is a "perfect fit for a low vol environment" and yet it is not doing well. Remember the motto: Nobody knows anything. Volatility can get as low as it wants to. That would hurt this position even further. There's still game in here. No time to exit. I will exit when/if SPY hits 200.
SPX 1805/1810 Put spread. Pretty comfortable so far. No concerns.
RUT 1050/1060/1260/1270 Iron Condor. The trade entered yesterday. Nothing to talk about here.
Action plan for the week
With June expiration in the past the focus now shifts to July. July has been a pretty tough month so far, with an adjustment already in the records. Let's see if I can pull of a positive month. I am not really concerned with the July positions right now. If SPX hits 2000 then I will consider the July Iron Condor to be in danger and I will also close the SPY Double Put Calendar spread. I think SPX 2000 is unlikely this week, so time to do nothing.
I could also consider a new Bear Call spread, using July options in RUT, that's if we go up a little bit more this week. Then, I would close the 2010/2015 SPX Call spread as soon as the market pulls back a little and I can exit for a scratch there. We'll see.
As for August, I'm not really thinking of adding new positions at this point with all what's going on with July options.
Monday: Home Sales
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: Core Durable Goods Orders
Thursday: Personal Spending, Initial Jobless Claims
Good luck this week folks!
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