After September expiration, the model portfolio shows a balance of $10245, or in other words it is up +2.45% for the year. That's certainly terrible compared with the S&P's performance this year. But it represents a great improvement since February. The first two months of the year took the model portfolio to a draw down of -14.22% when it reached its lowest balance of $8578. From them until now the portfolio has grown from $8578 to $10245 for a +19.43% gain in the last seven months, which is pretty good. And all that, in the middle of a very low volatility environment, which makes it harder to collect premium and a most of the time furiously bullish market.
SPX opened the week at 1691.70 and closed at 1709.91 for a +1.08% gain.
(Click on image to enlarge)
McClellan: +101 (neutral)
75.87% of stocks are above their 20 SMA (overbought)
64.25% of stocks are above their 50 SMA (neutral)
The two Iron Condors in the portfolio (one in October and one in November) have their short strikes (yellow horizontal lines on the chart) comfortably outside the projected path of the uptrend channel.
RUT 1120/1125 Bear Call Spread. Also in play since Wednesday. With RUT at 1072 and the market close to a bullish extreme, I like this position here. Currently an 82% probability of success ($200 credit)
There is a good chance of having an overall positive October expiration in spite of the adjustments that were needed this week.
Action plan for the week
As for November positions. November is historically a bullish month. I would like to sell Puts in November but it probably won't happen this week. I like to see a bit more oversold market for that.
Tuesday - CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday - Durable Goods, New Home Sales
Thursday - Jobless Claims, GDP
Good luck this week folks!
Check out 2013 Track Record