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Saturday, June 15, 2013

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (June 14, 2013)

No activity in the model portfolio this week as there is already enough downside exposure to be selling more Credit Put Spreads and at the same time the market didn't give me the rebound I was expecting to sell a Credit Call Spread.

SPX traveled from 1644.67 to 1626.73 for a -1.09% loss.

(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics at 53 (neutral)
McClellan -149 (neutral)
37.87% of stocks are above their 20SMA (neutral)
56.22% of stocks are above their 20SMA (neutral)

Still no man's land and I don't want to open trades under these circumstances as I feel there's good room to move either way.

The uptrend is still in play in my opinion (7 months! unbelievable) and obviously, the end gets closer and closer.


June Positions

SPX 1540/1545/1715/1720 Iron Condor
(Click on image to enlarge)
 98.21% probability of success in the next 6 days. Looking as comfortable as it can get.

RUT 905/910 Bull Put spread
(Click on image to enlarge)
99.70% probability of success, and also looking as good as possible.


July Positions

SPX 1505/1510 Bull Put Spread
With SPX at 1626 right now, this position is showing a 91.62% probability of success. No concerns at all.

RUT 890/895 Bull Put Spread
With RUT at 981 this one is also looking good. 91.88% probability of success.



Action Plan for the week

I'll let both June positions expire worthless. June will result in a small loss overall but these two trades remaining will recover some of that.

As for July positions, the plan is the same as last week. I want to get rid of one of the two Bull Put Spreads and open a Bear Call Spread. I will do that if the market rallies 2% this week, at which point I'll get rid of one of the Put Credit spreads (probably the one in RUT) and sell a Call Credit Spread probably with SPX Call options. If we go down, I believe my positions are safe enough at this point so I won't do anything.


Economic Calendar

Pretty light week (remember you can check out the Calendar page for more details). But this is what seems to matter the most this week.

Tuesday - CPI and Housing Stats
Thursday - Existing Home Sales


Good luck this week folks!

Check out Track Record for 2013


Go to the bottom of this page in order to see the Legal Stuff

6 comments:

  1. Why are you so eager to get rid one of your bull put spread? It looks pretty safe right now. I understand you don't like to be exposed so much to the downside without having a hedge.

    This week will be a market moving week with Fed meeting. Traders are positioning themselves for this big event.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yes, the whole reason is not having a 40% portfolio exposure. 40% although unlikely, would be disastrous and impossible to recover. I can open two Bull Put spreads, as you see right now, but I feel comfortable only taking one of them to expiration. Granted, this will results in lower returns but potentially a smoother profit curve.

    Thanks for the reminder about the Fed meeting. Didn't see it in the Calendar at first.
    Thanks for sharing

    ReplyDelete
  3. Great trading LT. Todays price action was a bit bearish but time will tell. As for your RUT again a break of 952 will put those bull put spreads in trouble.
    Good luck

    Alfonso
    stockporn.blogspot.ca

    ReplyDelete
  4. Thanks man.
    Well, fortunately, I'm getting rid of two bull put spreads in the next 3 days. Those are safe.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Congrats on closing your june positions. As you saw 952 support on the RUT came in strong today. If that gets broke then you need to access your RUT bull put spreads.

    See ya

    Alfonso
    stockporn.blogspot.ca

    ReplyDelete
  6. Thanks pal. Unfortunately, losing the first Iron Condor of the month, the way I did, prevented June exp. form being a positive cycle.

    As for RUT support at 952, I think markets will be decently oversold at that point. And I would take advantage of any temporary rebound. My 895 strike is still comfortable though.

    Thanks for the input

    ReplyDelete