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Sunday, June 2, 2013

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (06-02-2013)

SPX opened on Monday at 1652.63 and closed at 1630.74 for a -1.32% loss. Friday saw a decent loss there, we'll see if there's follow through. It could be, based on the length and shape of the candle, solid body with a close near the low of the day.

(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics at 20 (oversold)
McClellan  at -250 (oversold)
47.80% of stocks above their 20SMA (neutral)
63.46% of stocks above their 50SMA (neutral)

I believe chances are good for some sideways action here or a little immediate rebound, just because McClellan is indicating that the sell off happened too quickly. But then once that normalizes there could be more weakness. Again that candle looks hard to ignore. But who knows. In the end the uptrend is still intact in spite of the weakness seen this week. VIX is at 16.3, making it more attractive to sell credit spreads at this point. Which is what I did on Friday with the SPX 1505/1510 Bull Put Spread.


June Positions

RUT 905/910/1025/1030 Iron Condor
With RUT at 984 and 19 days to go in this position, there's a 75.81% probability of success . It's not looking bad at this point. But I would like to close the Calls side before expiration.

SPX 1540/1545/1715/1720 Iron Condor
83.60% probability of success. I like this one. No issues or contingency plan here.


July Positions

SPX 1505/1510 Bull put spread
Obviously nothing to be concerned about here as it was opened just three days ago, and it is 120 SPX points below.


Action plan for the week

I would like to close the Call side of the RUT Iron Condor. I will do it once that spread is showing some profit. Right now it is showing a $90 loss.

Other than that I would like to sell a vertical Call Spread in July with SPX options, which I will do if there is a rebound this week. Selling the 1730 area should feel comfortable enough.


Economic Calendar

Tuesday - US Trade balance
Wednesday - ADP Non farm payroll change. ISM Non manufacturing Index
Thursday - Initial Jobless claims
Friday - Non farm Payrolls, Unemployment rate

Good luck this week folks!

Check out Track Record for 2013


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3 comments:

  1. Hey Henrik,

    I'm looking at 984.2 support and 996.6 resistance. I don't think you have much to worry about on the call side of your spread. IMO.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Great, thanks Alfonso. I would like to know one day how you determine those levels with such precision :)
    Anyways, yes, I believe those levels are short term resistance/support but there are 18 days to go, so we'll see

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  3. Yes those are 'short' term only for the simple fact that we are in uncharted territory there really hasn't been any price levels that have been significantly tested. But you never know these levels can become major levels of support and resistance. The significant levels closest to current price are 952 and 1004.4. The short term numbers make for great entry points for quick scalps or even holding for a day or two.

    ReplyDelete