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Sunday, April 7, 2013

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (04-07-2013)

SPX went from 1569.18 to 1553.28 this week for a small loss of -1.01%. There was a decent downside move on Friday that bounced off of the lower end of the up trend channel beautifully. It would have been a nice opportunity to sell a Bull Put Spread and I had 1430 in my mind as the short strike, but as many others, didn't enter expecting more downside.

As of now, the uptrend channel that started since November 16, 2012 is still intact.

(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics at 39
McClellan at -115
34.44% of stocks are above their 20 SMA
50.62% of stocks are above their 50 SMA

No man's land. We're not oversold but we could quickly go there. A -1.5% or -2% move this week could take us to oversold levels, ideal to sell out of the money Bull Put spreads. As usual, you will need the guts to do it in the middle of the heat, when everybody else is chickening out picturing the world falling apart.


April Positions

SPX 1445/1450/1610/1615 Iron Condor
(Click on image to enlarge)
Looking pretty good with a 91% probability of success in the next 12 days. The break even points look far enough and my plan is to let it all expire worthless for full profit.

SPX 1440/1445 Bull Put spread
(Click on image to enlarge)
 99.67% probability of success. I could close it now, but given the small credit received for this one, commissions would eat up to much of the profits. So, I'll take it to expiration.


May Positions

RUT 850/855/1000/1005 Iron Condor
The first trade of the May 2013 expiration cycle was entered last Monday. So far nothing to be concerned about with RUT at 923.


Action Plan for the week

I don't think I will have to touch any of the existing positions. This week I'll be waiting for a nice opportunity to add positions in the May expiration cycle. I would like to sell a Bull Put spread in SPX with short strike price below 1450. The farther the better, and I would like to obtain a 0.65 credit or higher for that. I will need some market downside for that to happen.


Economic Calendar

Monday - Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks at 7:15pm. China CPI at 9:30pm
Wednesday - FOMC Minutes meeting at 2:00pm
Thursday - US Jobless claims 8:30am
Friday - PPI and Retail Sales at 8:30am. Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 9:55am. Bernanke speaks at 12:30pm

Good luck this week folks!

Check out Track record for 2013


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