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BookingAlpha Option Trading Advisory

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (06-17-2012)

The S&P500 closed the week with a 0.7% increase. Pretty much sideways action until Thursday and Friday where bullish momentum was more obvious. The June portfolio saw its two remaining positions expire worthless for full profit. The SPY 137/139 Credit Call Spread was not touched at all as price never threatened the 137 level so no need to adjust or anything here for a 17.65% return on margin. The IWM 72/70 Credit Put Spread was also successful, and since IWM never hit 72.20, I didn't have to adjust/roll or anything. Full profit was obtained here of 16.28% return on margin.

All June portfolio positions are now closed. And although the month started with a loss, I managed to end up in positive territory. 3 wins - 1 loss, +4.23% performance before commissions and +2.17% performance after commissions.

Up until now, the track record shows 19 wins - 3 losses. And a +25.21% performance in 7 months trading assuming a very unfavorable commissions schema of $1.50 per contract. Which means, with other assumptions about the commissions schema the track record would be showing over +30% performance on the overall portfolio. Pretty decent I think.

Moving on to the July portfolio, an SPX Bear Call Spread was opened this week, betting that the markets wont hit 1415 by July expiration. I'm playing my bets in front of Greek elections because I see good room, decent credit, and still a lot of issues in the world, it's not only Greece, plus the seasonality factors, which point to slow markets during summer months.

The SPY 118/116 Bull Put spread is doing pretty good and it is not a concern so far.

Here's the portfolio Beta-weighted:

(Click on image to enlarge)

Profitability with SPX between 1175 and 1416, and a 76.17% chance of being profitable by July 20.

There's going to be plenty of action this week, with FOMC meeting on Wednesday, and then Jobless Claims, Home Sales, Philly Fed, and PMI Manufacturing on Thursday. On top of that the results of Greek elections, which are being decided as I write, should cause the markets to move with conviction to one side or the other.

Plan for the week

If the markets start to sell off, I will be a happy man, as the markets will get closer to the center of the range of profitability of the portfolio. Which will make it more comfortable. In that event I won't do anything. No adjustments, no new trades.

If the markets start to move up, but don't hit SPX 1360-1370, I won't do anything. No new trades, no adjustments. Now, if the markets move up strong, with SPX hitting 1360-1370, then markets will be reasonably overbought and I will look forward to opening another Bear Call Spread, probably on RUT, selling the 830, or 840 July Calls.

Manage your risk! Put odds on your side! And stay profitable my friends!

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1 comment:

  1. SPY is again up on track without any strong resistance ahead. Looks like positive Greece's election results made a strong risk appetite across the financial markets. ps. my site:
    Trading Market Online