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Sunday, January 1, 2012

Weekend Thoughts (01-01-2012)

Well, well, well....the year is finally over... thank God!! I'm sick of the carols everywhere and the cheesy year end commercials. Now down to business! As usual, here is a chart of the S&P500.

(Click on Image to enlarge)

Finally resistance couldn't be broken this week. And now the short term mood looks more favorable to the downside. With oscillators getting out of overbought territory and starting to head south.

Now, let's look at the VIX.
(Click on Image to enlarge)

It is moving up and looks like there is still some room to keep moving north in the short term.

There are chances for a slow week as trading volumes pick up. I also see some bearish bias in the very short term but seasonality tendencies seem to favor January as a month for the bulls. There seems to be some degree of confidence in the performance of corporate America and the jobs situation, whose numbers will be reported this week. So, although I'm slightly bearish I don't see dangers of a huge sell off coming this week.

On the other hand we have China slowing down and the ghost of European debt this year. And most "experts" out there seem to agree that bulls will be stopped from going too far as long as those concerns remain.

We also have the Maya's calendar coming to an end and people forecasting the end of the Universe because of it. Will the Markets go Up? Down? Will the Universe be over? I don't care! Because the portfolio looks pretty damn good and comfortable beta-weighted against the SPX and it's all about the odds:

(Click on Image to enlarge)

Profitability range between 1109 and 1373 and 92.34% probability of success in the next 19 days according to ThinkOrSwim.

Chances are, no new trades will be open this week unless something extreme happens to one side of the markets.


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3 comments:

  1. Hello! Can you make a review about my forex EA on your website? Please, answer me.

    www.forex-e-trading.com

    Regards,
    Oleg

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi Oleg,
    Thanks for your comment. I think it is better for people to learn how to review Expert Advisors themselves rather than carrying the burden of their loss or wins on my blog. I will be publishing an article about how to review expert advisors in a couple weeks that will hopefully provide new traders with enough elements to learn how to evaluate them.
    Regards

    ReplyDelete
  3. My tips on how to review expert advisors
    http://www.the-lazy-trader.com/2012/03/how-to-review-expert-advisors.html

    ReplyDelete