LTOptions at a 33% discount during the Year End Holidays.
Tell me More

BookingAlpha Option Trading Advisory

Sunday, July 15, 2018

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (July 15, 2018)

This week's analysis has been published at

Download Weekend Portfolio Analysis (2018-07-15).pdf

If the above link doesn't work for you, simply log in to, navigate to the "Weekly Analysis" tab and download the document from there.

The Weekend Portfolio Analysis will be available on this site next week for historical reference.

All currently open positions can be seen on the 2018 Track Record page
Recent Trading Activity

- Closed Call side of SPX August Elephant at a $686 loss on Tuesday. Still riding the Put side.

- Closed Call side of RUT August Elephant at a $680 loss on Tuesday. Still riding the Put side.

Market Conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 91 (Overbought)
McClellan: +19 (Neutral)
Stocks above their 20 DMA: 56% (Neutral)

No man's land

Strong market this past week from 2759 up to 2801. Now the index fighting against horizontal resistance after months of consolidation and with the oscillators showing more upside room.

The index is 2.3% higher than its 50-day average. Not an extreme yet and leaving room for a further 1%-1.5% advance. SPX around 2,840 would be an overbought extreme. So, for now, I think the 2,872 all-time highs seen earlier this year are unlikely to be taken for at least a month. But in the short term, there is room to hit 2820 - 2830 - 2840. I'm personally biased towards the upside at this point. July being a low volume month makes it hard for markets to correct significantly. In fact since 1950, July has averaged a positive 0.89% return. The worst July ever experienced was that of 2002, where the market fell 7.9%. Hardly a crash. August however, has been a different story. Historically signaling more weakness.

The Russell Index:
(Click on image to enlarge)
Also getting close to horizontal resistance. Triple top in this case at all time-highs. July position safe at this point. August position also looking very safe (Call side already taken off).

Current Portfolio:
The SPY Calls and SVXY Calls expire in December and January of next year. All bullish bets on a market rebound.

Let's now look at the income plays.

Jul. RUT/IWM 1570/1575/1745/1750 - 159/175 Elephant
Net Credit: $1,684. One week to expiration.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Defense lines: 1,530 to the downside (adjust Put side). 1,730 to the upside (close Calls at a loss, keep riding Put side, which has a credit that is greater than the Call side loss. This Elephant should expire without hassle for max profit on Friday.

Aug. SPX 2430/2440 Elephant Put side
Net credit: $1,200. Five weeks to expiration
(Click on image to enlarge)
Defense lines: 2,520 to the downside (adjust Put side).

Aug. RUT/IWM 1500/1510 - 154 Elephant Put side
Net credit: $1,100. Five weeks to expiration
(Click on image to enlarge)
Defense line: 1,560 to the downside (adjust Put side).

Action Plan for the Week

- Let the July RUT Elephant expire for max on Friday.

- Baby sit the other positions, which are very safe as they only represent Put exposure.

- We are still 10 weeks away from September expiration. So, no plans to deploy a September position yet.

Economic Calendar

Monday: ECB President Draghi speaks. China's CPI.
Wednesday: ECB President Draghi speaks. US PPI.
Thursday: ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting. US CPI. China's Trade Balance.
Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations.

Take it easy pals,

If you are interested in a responsible and sustainable way of trading options for consistent income with solid risk management, consider acquiring LTOptions, my options trading system to the last detail.

Check out 2018 Track Record

Go to the bottom of this page in order to see the Legal Stuff

No comments:

Post a Comment