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BookingAlpha Option Trading Advisory

Sunday, May 6, 2018

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (May 6, 2018)

This week's analysis has been published at LTOptions.com

Download Weekend Portfolio Analysis (2018-05-06).pdf

If the above link doesn't work for you, simply log in to LTOptions.com, navigate to the "Weekly Analysis" tab and download the document from there.

The Weekend Portfolio Analysis will be available on this site next week for historical reference.

All currently open positions can be seen on the 2018 Track Record page


Last Weekend Analysis now publicly available:
Weekend Portfolio Analysis (April 28, 2018) 
I'll be out of the country next Saturday with no Internet access. For this reason, there won't be a weekend article.

Recent Trading Activity

- Closed the remainder (Put) side of the May RUT/IWM Elephant on Friday for a $870 profit. This gain covers the loss suffered earlier on the Call side, and then some.

- Initiated a June SPX Elephant on Friday. Net credit $1,428.

Market Conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 50 (Neutral. Up from 43)
McClellan: +27 (Neutral. Up from +6)
Stocks above their 20 DMA: 53% (Neutral. Down from 57%)

No man's land

Plenty of room to go both ways. Still below the 50-day average, and this is why I played another Elephant. The upper end of the new position (yellow lines) is below horizontal resistance (2800). But, this is an Elephant. So, the suffering on the Call side is way more limited than with Iron Condors.

The VIX is now below 15. It took a while and I'm still looking at the 2540 - 2800 as the battle field for a few weeks.

The Russell Index:
(Click on image to enlarge)
With only one position now, which looks well positioned past resistance and below support.


Current Portfolio:
The SPY Calls and SVXY Calls expire in December and January of next year. All bullish bets on a market rebound.

Let's now look at the income plays.



Jun. RUT/IWM 1400/1410/1650/1655 - 144/166 Elephant
Net Credit: $1,316. Six weeks to expiration.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Defense lines: 1,455 to the downside (adjust Put side) and 1,620 to the upside (close all Calls at a loss and keep riding Put side, whose credit will be larger than the loss on the Calls).


Jun. SPX/SPY 2450/2460/2780/2790 - 251/279 Elephant
Net Credit: $1,428. Six weeks to expiration.
(Click on image to enlarge)
Defense lines: 2,540 to the downside (adjust Put side) and 2,740 to the upside (close all Calls at a loss and keep riding Put side, whose credit will be larger than the loss on the Calls).


Action Plan for the Week

- The goal this week is to just baby-sit both Elephants. Set alerts at specific price points, keep going with daily life until a defense point is touched. If it happens.

- At the same time, on a sell-off I would like to close the Call side of the Elephants if they get close to their max profit potential. So, let's say, 80% of max profit potential on a Call side is reached (or better), then I'll consider closing it for possible re-deployment on a rebound.


Economic Calendar

Tuesday: Fed Chairman Powell speaks.
Wednesday: US PPI.
Thursday: US Core CPI.
Friday: ECB President Draghi speaks. Michigan Consumer Sentiment/Expectations.

Good luck this week my friends.
And remember I will be away next week.
Cheers,
LT


If you are interested in a responsible and sustainable way of trading options for consistent income with solid risk management, consider acquiring LTOptions, my options trading system to the last detail.

Check out 2018 Track Record


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