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Sunday, April 22, 2018

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (April 22, 2018)

This week's analysis has been published at LTOptions.com

Download Weekend Portfolio Analysis (2018-04-22).pdf

If the above link doesn't work for you, simply log in to LTOptions.com, navigate to the "Weekly Analysis" tab and download the document from there.

The Weekend Portfolio Analysis will be available on this site next week for historical reference.

All currently open positions can be seen on the 2018 Track Record page


Last Weekend Analysis now publicly available:
Weekend Portfolio Analysis (April 15, 2018) 
Recent Trading Activity

- Closed Call side of May RUT Elephant at a $688 loss on Wednesday. The Put side remains, now very safe, and with a total credit that is greater than this loss. So, it should be an overall winner but it just takes time now.

- The April SPX Elephant expired for max profit of $1608 on Friday.

- Also tried to get filled on a June SPX Elephant on Friday without success. I'll try to deploy this position on Monday.

Market Conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 67 (Neutral. Down from 80)
McClellan: +3 (Neutral. Up from +40)
Stocks above their 20 DMA: 65% (Neutral. Up from 53%)

No man's land

No SPX position at the moment. There's plenty of room both ways. My guideline to the downside continues to be 2540 as horizontal support, while I'm still looking at the upper end of the channel as resistance (diagonal red line). Obviously before touching that, the previous swing highs around 2,800 can offer horizontal resistance too.

This week, oscillators went down while the % of stocks above the 20 DMA was up. Interesting move that is not common at all. So, most stocks were overall up, despite the weakness seen over the last few days.

The index is below its 50 and 100 day averages but not oversold. For this reason, I'll go with a June SPX Elephant on Monday.

The Russell Index:
(Click on image to enlarge)



Current Portfolio:
The SPY Calls and SVXY Calls expire in December and January of next year. All bullish bets on a market rebound.

Let's now look at the income plays.


May. RUT/IWM 1375/1385 - 141 Elephant Put side
Net Credit: $1,420 and five weeks to expiration
(Click on image to enlarge)
Defense line: 1,425 (adjust the Put side).


Action Plan for the Week

The portfolio is pretty light at the moment with plenty of capital sitting idle.

- Deploy a June SPX Elephant on Monday. Let's see if I have better luck this time with the fills. I may have to try with RUT if it gives me too much trouble.



Economic Calendar

Monday: Europe PMI. US Existing Home Sales.
Tuesday: US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales.
Thursday: European Bank Press Conference. Bank Of Japan Monetary Policy Statement. US Core Durable Goods Orders.
Friday: US GDP. Michigan Consumer Confidence.

Good luck this week my friends,
LT


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Check out 2018 Track Record


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