LTOptions at a 33% discount during the Year End Holidays.
Tell me More

BookingAlpha Option Trading Advisory

Sunday, May 1, 2016

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (May 1, 2016)

It was a certainty that the market would keep going up, especially during FOMC week, wasn't it? Ah, the market and its funny ways. It ended up down more than 1% for the week, not the end of the world, but it almost feels like it after so long. Year to date, the S&P500 is now up 1.05%

Recent Trading Activity

- No trading activity

Market Conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 30 (neutral)
McClellan: -24 (neutral)
Stocks above their 20 DMA: 57% (neutral)

No man's land. Not the ideal time for adding individual Credit Spreads. I will keep waiting for an extreme for the time being.

Yellow lines represent current positions. Except the May31 Calls, everything else looks comfortable.

Current Portfolio

May31 SPX 2125/2150 Credit Call Spread
SPX 2150 Long Calls & 1885/1890 Credit Put spread

Same plan: just let time go by and close the whole thing as soon as a break-even balance is reached. If the market goes up, then I'll defend the Call side at SPX 2120. This position is coming to an end anyways, possibly late this week or next.

June30 SPX 2200/2225 Credit Call Spread
6 deltas only. Looking comfortable. This position resulted from an adjustment so I'd like to squeeze out as much profit as I can out of it. No immediate plans to close it for now.

July29 SPX 1650/1675/2200/2225 Unbalanced Iron Condor
Call side much better now at 11 deltas. Looking to close it early at or 6 or 7 deltas and around 50% or 60% of max profit to alleviate upside risk in the portfolio, which is still more than I like.

July SPY Long 169 Puts
Portfolio Insurance.

August SPX 1750/1760/2250/2260 Unbalanced Iron Condor
Looking good, 11 deltas on the Put side, only 6 on the Call side. Planning to close the Call side early for 0.20 debit, which may be possible if SPX goes down to 2010-2020.

Action Plan for the Week

- If SPX rallies beyond 2,120, close the May31 SPX Credit Call spread for a loss and deploy a new May31 Credit Call spread at 2,200. At the same time, we would be closing the SPX 2150 Long Calls & 1885/1890 Credit Put spread to mitigate those losses.

- Close the July29 Call spreads for 1.10 debit or so, if they reach 6-7 deltas. This should be possible with a simple 1% drop.

- Close the Aug31 Call spreads for 0.20 debit. This could happen with SPX falling down to 2010-2020.

- Sell June RUT Credit Put spreads if we reach an oversold extreme condition, a 2.5% or so from current levels. RUT has looked more oversold than SPX all year. Regular June exp, 960/970 could easily reach 10 deltas and it would be my choice.

- Cash gains on long SPY July Puts on an 80%-100% ROI shall the markets fall significantly.

- Sideways action = do nothing.

The LT Trend Sniper will go buy both the Euro and Gold today Sunday as soon as the markets open. This is an interesting scenario where a signal has been triggered on both instruments at the same time. We'll see how these positions unfold (positions 5 and 6 of the year out of an expected total of 12 by year end).

Economic Calendar
First week of the month, always with potential to generate more activity and larger moves.

Monday: German PMI, Europe Manufacturing, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, ECB President Draghi speaks. China's Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: ADP Employment change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventories
Thursday: A bunch of FOMC Members speak at 7:15 PM New York Time
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment numbers.

Options Trading results - Closed positions (trading costs included), we are down 2.64% for 2016. The S&P is up 1.05%. The portfolio is currently 67% invested, 33% in cash. Some decent credit accumulated to overcome the losses and more, and current positions feeling comfortable. No alarming threat at the moment.

Forex Trading results - Up +1.33% for the year. Four closed trades in total so far: 1 win, 1 loss in EURUSD and 1 win, 1 loss in XAUUSD. Will go Long EURUSD and XAUUSD (Gold) today as soon as those markets open.

Good luck this week my friends!

If you are interested in a responsible and sustainable way of trading options for consistent income with solid risk management, consider acquiring LTOptions, my options trading system to the last detail.

Check out 2016 Track Record

Go to the bottom of this page in order to see the Legal Stuff

No comments:

Post a Comment