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Tuesday, August 18, 2015

October 2015 SPX unbalanced Iron Condor

Today I started trading the October 2015 monthly options expiration cycle:

I have to say it was a tough fill that took me about an hour. Getting filled on the whole position at once was impossible for me so I had to end up entering separate spreads. When I did this the fills were pretty easy.

Trade Details
Here are the position sizes adjusted to the model portfolio:

Buy 4 October SPX 1890 Put @7.25
Sell 4 October SPX 1895 Put @7.55
Sell 2 October SPX 2195 Call @3.08
Buy 2 October SPX 2200 Call @2.58

Credit: 0.30 on Put side ($120), 0.50 on Call side ($100). Total credit received $220.
Max Risk: $1780 to the downside with SPX below 1895 and $780 to the up side with SPX above 2195.
Days to expiration: 58

Here's the initial profit picture of this baby:
(Click on image to enlarge)

Here's the chart of the SPX index after market close today, August 18, 2015 for my own future reference and self study:
(Click on image to enlarge)

Current positions in the Portfolio:

August RUT 1350/1360 Credit Call Spread
$134 credit. Will expire for max profit on Friday morning.

August SPX 1925/1930 Credit Put Spread
$120 credit. Will expire for max profit on Friday morning.

September RUT 1120/1130/1330/1340 unbalanced Iron Condor
$235 credit, 4 and a half weeks to expiration. Now with a more comfortable 87% probability of success.

October SPX 1890/1895/2195/2200 unbalanced Iron Condor
The trade discussed in this article

Deployed are now 3 Credit Put spreads and 3 Credit Call spreads in total. I almost never have this kind of exposure on. However, I am willing to take this risk because two positions are expiring in less than 72 hours and they are looking as safe as Castro's regime. The July - August cycle is a five week one (usually there are only 4 weeks from expiration to expiration). Because this time there are five, there is this overlapping of several positions in three different cycles on. Normally, the August cycle would have already finished last week and now I would have positions in just two different months. But again it is because of this extended five week period since the most recent cycle, that I still have August positions on.

Check out 2015 Track record

Related Articles:
Put side of SPX Iron Condor is defended (August 21, 2015)
Adjusted SPX 1700/1710/2195/2200 Iron Condors expires succesfully

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  1. hi master can you share a on how do you calculate the probablity of success when you mentioned...... "Now with a more comfortable 87% probability of success." ?


    1. Very simple Nick. I don't calculate it myself.
      I just go to the Analyze tab in the ThinkOrSwim platform (by the way free) and the Analyze tab tells me the numbers.