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Sunday, February 8, 2015

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (February 8, 2015)

From 1996.67 up to 2055.47 for a 2.94% gain in the week and now the markets are up year to date. Because we didn't reach short term extremes I made no trades and I simply kept riding my February and March Iron Condors.

Market Conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 86 (overbought)
McClellan: +54 (neutral)
Stocks above their 20 Day Moving Average: 65% (neutral)

Still no man's land and with the VIX going down, selling Puts is becoming less and less attractive. Selling Calls still a no-no. This is simply time to stay put.

February positions
SPX 1875/1880/2190/2195 Iron Condor
11 days to expiration and 96% probability of success. This trade is a winner. Looks like I won't enter any other trades using February options. Well, so be it. Avoiding excessive risks is one of my mottoes and I didn't see clear opportunities. February will be a 3% portfolio growth month and I'm not mad about that.

March positions
SPX 1845/1850/2170/2175 unbalanced Iron Condor
39 days to expiration and 78% probability of success. This position is now looking much better. Last week the Put side had a 21% probability of expiring in the money. Now that number has dropped to 10.70% and I feel much more comfortable.

Action plan for the week
I will continue to ride my two Iron Condors which should receive no threats this week. They are both looking pretty safe at this point.

As for new trades, I will only enter individual credit spreads. No more Iron Condors until I start trading the April cycle. I would like to sell a RUT 1300/1310 Credit Call spread for 1.00 credit or better and 90% probability of success. For that, we need a 2% rally. I feel we are closer to overbought than oversold so this would be my ideal play. As for selling Puts, I need a 4% fall from here before I start to get interested and that scenario is unlikely in a week. We'll see. If it happens, I will be interested in selling RUT Puts in the low 1000's.

The LT Trend Sniper finally exited its short EURUSD position, which had been initiated on December 21, 2014. The position was held for 43 days in the end and it was a 741.3 pip winner from 1.22229 down to 1.14816.

MyFxBook has an informative widget that displays some interesting data about the trade once it is closed:

The small Forex portfolio is now up +11.02% year to date and it is 100% in cash.
This system will make 5 to 6 trades per year so, there is still a lot of trading ahead in 2015. Being a trend follower, losing trades will exist going forward but this is excellent to start off the year.

For more information about this strategy, visit the LT Trend Sniper's page

Economic Calendar
Very light week ahead in terms of news:

Monday: China's CPI
Thursday: US Core Retail and Retail Sales
Friday: Germany's GDP, European GDP and Trade Balance. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Good luck this week!

Check out 2015 Track record

Go to the bottom of this page in order to see the Legal Stuff


  1. “I would like to sell a RUT 1300/1310 Credit Call spread for 1.00 credit or better and 90% probability of success.”

    My colleague got filled on March RUT 1300/1310 credit call spread for 1.00 credit on Friday morning when it made a high of the day.

    I feel we are in no man’s land too but closer to an overbought than oversold. Last Monday morning, we had an oversold condition but I couldn’t get my April credit put spread orders filled quickly enough to take advantage of it. Now I will wait for the market to give me an overbought or oversold signal before making my next move.

    What I did last week:

    Last week, I closed the Feb SPX 1800/1795 cps for .05 debit. I got in this position on December 12st, 2014 for .45 credit. Profit is .40. This position never gave me any trouble.

    Plans for this week:

    I hope to close the March SPX 1720/1710 cps for .10 debit if the market continues to go up. If we get an overbought condition, I will look to sell March credit call spreads.

    Current Positions:

    Mar 31st RUT 1000/990 cps
    Mar SPX 1720/1710 cps

    You can follow me on Twitter @lienjonathan where I tweet my high probability credit spread trades in real-time for free. You can like my Facebook page and see all my open and closed trades and track record below.

  2. Hello Gentlemen. I did not trade this week, still got my March RUY Iron Condor that is loooking ok I'm only worried the call side 1300/1310 if the Index keep raising. My Feb PS SPX is looking preatty good to receive full premium. I will start looking for IC on April cycle at the end of next week, and will get into selling spreads only if we get a big movement.