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McClellan: +54 (neutral)
Stocks above their 20 Day Moving Average: 65% (neutral)
Still no man's land and with the VIX going down, selling Puts is becoming less and less attractive. Selling Calls still a no-no. This is simply time to stay put.
SPX 1875/1880/2190/2195 Iron Condor
11 days to expiration and 96% probability of success. This trade is a winner. Looks like I won't enter any other trades using February options. Well, so be it. Avoiding excessive risks is one of my mottoes and I didn't see clear opportunities. February will be a 3% portfolio growth month and I'm not mad about that.
SPX 1845/1850/2170/2175 unbalanced Iron Condor
39 days to expiration and 78% probability of success. This position is now looking much better. Last week the Put side had a 21% probability of expiring in the money. Now that number has dropped to 10.70% and I feel much more comfortable.
Action plan for the week
I will continue to ride my two Iron Condors which should receive no threats this week. They are both looking pretty safe at this point.
As for new trades, I will only enter individual credit spreads. No more Iron Condors until I start trading the April cycle. I would like to sell a RUT 1300/1310 Credit Call spread for 1.00 credit or better and 90% probability of success. For that, we need a 2% rally. I feel we are closer to overbought than oversold so this would be my ideal play. As for selling Puts, I need a 4% fall from here before I start to get interested and that scenario is unlikely in a week. We'll see. If it happens, I will be interested in selling RUT Puts in the low 1000's.
The LT Trend Sniper finally exited its short EURUSD position, which had been initiated on December 21, 2014. The position was held for 43 days in the end and it was a 741.3 pip winner from 1.22229 down to 1.14816.
MyFxBook has an informative widget that displays some interesting data about the trade once it is closed:
The small Forex portfolio is now up +11.02% year to date and it is 100% in cash.
For more information about this strategy, visit the LT Trend Sniper's page
Very light week ahead in terms of news:
Monday: China's CPI
Thursday: US Core Retail and Retail Sales
Friday: Germany's GDP, European GDP and Trade Balance. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
Good luck this week!
Check out 2015 Track record