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Saturday, January 3, 2015

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (January 3, 2015)

Welcome to the first Weekend Portfolio Analysis of 2015. If this is your first time reading the blog, this is a typical article I write on weekends (usually on Saturdays) where I go over all my current positions and plan my next moves ahead of time for the upcoming week.

This week the SPX index went from 2087.63 down to 2058.20 for a 1.41% loss. As I said on last week's analysis, in this scenario I wouldn't enter new trades, which is exactly what I did. Let's move on to the current market conditions.

Market conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 36 (neutral)
McClellan: +17 (neutral)
Stocks above their 20 Day Moving Average: 64% (neutral)

Total neutrality across the board and the market has plenty of room to move with strength in either direction. Under these circumstances I do not sell individual spreads. I would sell for example Iron Condors, but I already have one, so no need to push for the fences.


January positions
SPX 1820/1825 Credit Put Spread
$120 credit. 13 days to expiration. No concerns here. I will take it all the way to expiration.

February positions
SPX 1875/1880/2190/2195 Iron Condor
$320 credit. 47 days to expiration and 73% probability of success. I'm not concerned at all with the Call side of this Iron Condor. The Put side doesn't look too bad either at 1880. However, with the recent increase in the VIX, the 1880 strike price has around 15% probability of being in the money. Still far from my adjustment point of 30% but something to start looking at. I feel safe for now.


Action plan for the week
If the market falls to around 2015, I will be really interested in selling a Put spread. Still using February options. I might use RUT, but I need to see it oversold, otherwise I would go with SPX itself.

If the market goes up, I won't do anything, unless it goes up by a lot. I'm talking SPX 2100 or so. If that were to happen I would sell RUT Credit Call spreads above 1310.

If the market moves sideways, I'm more than fine doing nothing. Sometimes the best way to make money is by not trying too hard.


Forex
The Euro continues its free fall and it is about to crack the 1.2000 handle for the first time since June 2010. The LT Trend Sniper system entered a short position at 1.2223 on December 21, 2014.

(Click on image to enlarge)

The portfolio is already up +3.26%. Of course this is not a locked in gain until the position is finally closed.
(Click on image to enlarge)
The sniper will continue to be short EURUSD this entire week unless an 8 day closing high is made.


Economic Calendar
First full week of 2015 in the markets and it could be a pretty exciting one. Here are the main items on the Economic Calendar.

Tuesday: ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, China's Trade Balance.
Wednesday: European CPI, European Unemployment. US ADP Non Farm employment Change, US Trade Balance.
Thursday: Chinese CPI.
Friday: US Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment change.

Good luck this week folks!

Check out 2015 Track record



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8 comments:

  1. Happy New Year! Thanks for the update. I like your current positions.

    In 2015, I will show only the trades and results for my sister's account. I think it will be easier for people to follow and understand instead of showing trades and positions in my personal account. I plan to make 10 to 15 trades this year in her account. Her account value at the beginning of 2015 is $16,530. As of today, it is $16,430. My goal is to reach $20,000 by the end of the year.

    Last week I did not make any trades. Next week, I am looking to sell March credit put spreads if we have an oversold condition. I am also looking to sell Feb credit call spreads to iron condor with my Feb credit put spreads if we get an overbought condition.

    Current positions:

    Jan IWM 105/103 cps
    Jan IWM 125/127 ccs
    Feb RUT 1000/990 cps
    Feb RUT 1800/1795 cps

    You can follow me on Twitter @lienjonathan where I tweet my high probability credit spread trades in real-time for free.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Goals are good. They keep you motivated. Yours is challenging but pretty realistic and achievable. All 4 positions looking decently good so far. Thanks for sharing. We're going to kill it this year my friend!
      Cheers,
      LT

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    2. Thanks LT. Your goals should be a big goal so that it keeps your motivated and inspired. If the goal is too easy, there is no fun in pursuing it.

      Delete
    3. Agreed. My goal this year is +30% return. No more justifications.
      LT

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  2. Random question. Where do you get your data for number of stocks over their 20 day moving average? Does thinkorswim have a ticker symbol for it?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hey Jay,

      It's all here:
      http://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum.php

      Cheers,
      LT

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  3. Hello LT and Happy NewYear to you and all your readers. Thank you for sharing your knowlege and journey with all us. I have been following you for a year now and yout trading have been an inspiration to me. Thanks to you I have been introduced to the options seller world. And also for my new year resolutions I have the commitment to blog my trading activity. 2014 was going smoothly till Octuber/November when I lost 20%.
    So far have just FEB SPX 1840/1850 CP at 0.8
    Sorry if I copy some of your blogging stile on my blog www.bellinimarkets.com and my twitter @bellinimarkets
    Thanks a lot from Madrid, Spain

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glad to have you as a reader @bellinimarkets. Started reading your blog this morning. good luck with your trades in 2015.
      LT

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