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McClellan: -120 (neutral)
36% of stocks are trading above their 20 Day Moving Average (neutral)
Lots of neutrality here. To me this is no man's land and I'm waiting for a clearer oversold extreme before opening a new August position. A -1% move this week could take us there and then I will sell out of the money Put spreads. Most likely using IWM (103/101 spread for at least 0.12 credit).
SPX 1735/1740/2010/2015 Iron Condor 92% probability of success. I now think this fight has been won. And I'm not concerned with the Call side of this Iron Condor anymore. The SPX would need to move up 43 points before Friday morning, and although nothing is impossible, I think that's an unlikely scenario.
SPX 1805/1810 Put spread Very comfortable. No concerns here.
RUT 1050/1060/1260/1270 Iron Condor. 87% probability of success and the index is sitting right in the middle of the profitability range (1160). That is as good as it gets. There's nothing to do here other than keep babysitting the position.
Action plan for the week
All July positions will be left to expire worthless. They are all comfortable and unlikely to be threatened in the next 6 days. July will end up being a discreet month of around +0.5% return for the portfolio. This is because I had to adjust the 1975/1980 Call spread side of the SPX Iron Condor and that always causes a temporary loss. But that's ok. It is always a victory to pull off a positive return for a month when you start on the wrong foot with a threatened and adjusted position. If all the months where one of my credit spreads went wrong I were able to finish the cycle with positive returns, I would be more than happy. A sequence of 2 or 3 months should be about to happen where I nail them without any necessary adjustments.
August is looking pretty good right now, and there's no rush to enter a new position. If the market doesn't reach an oversold or an overbought extreme this week, I'll do exactly nothing. If it does (currently closer to an oversold short term extreme) then I will sell a credit spread against the prevailing short term trend at the moment. As usual, using the first strike with a 10% probability of being in the money by expiration. Haven't decided on the symbol yet, but if it is an oversold extreme, it will most likely be IWM.
Tuesday: US Retails sales. Chinese GDP and Industrial Production
Wednesday: US PPI
Thursday: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Philly Fed
Good luck this week folks!
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