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Saturday, November 23, 2013

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (November 23, 2013)

SPX went from 1798.82 to 1804.76 this week for a small +0.33% gain. And boy oh boy the market keeps defying gravity. It has all become slower and more boring with the light volumes we are seeing, which is only bound to continue in front of Thanks Giving weekend in the US.

Market conditions
(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 78 (neutral)
McClellan: +5 (neutral)
62% of stocks are above their 20 Simple Day Moving Average (neutral)
64% of stocks are above their 50 Simple Day Moving Average (neutral)

With so many neutral readings, I can only say we are in no man's land. This market IS NOT overbought. At least based on the parameters I follow. I consider it dangerous to sell close to at the money options at this point, and I am totally unable to even dare to predict what the next move will be.

December positions
SPX 1675/1680/1850/1855 Iron Condor. With a 74% probability of success, 27 days to expiration and SPX sitting at 1804 this one is not looking too bad. No concern at this point, although I'll have to be taking a look at the markets from time to time in case the short 1850 Call option starts to feel the heat. But that probably won't happen until we see SPX 1830-1835.

(Click on image to enlarge)

SPX 1600/1605 Bull Put Spread. With SPX 200 points above the short put (1605) I have no more concerns with this one. No need to put a position chart as it is easy to know what is going on here.
January positions
SPX 1645/1650/1880/1885 Iron Condor the first 2014 trade. It was entered yesterday, so nothing to be said here. Will just let it mature for now.

Action plan for the week
I think this upcoming week will be slow as usual in front of Thanks Giving Day. Based on that I believe my  1645/1650/1850/1855 January Iron Condor won't be threatened. But if it is threatened, that is if SPX goes up to 1830 - 1835  I will probably adjust the 1850/1855 Call side further up. Other than that, I'm not interested in opening new December positions.

As for January, I won't enter any more trades if the market doesn't reach a bullish or bearish extreme. That is unlikely to happen this week. So, in conclusion, this may very well be a week of no trading activity for me. I love these type of weeks. The less I have to look at the markets the better.

Economic Calendar

Monday: US Pending Home Sales
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence, Housing Starts
Wednesday: Durable Goods, Chicago PMI

Good luck this week folks!

Check out 2013 Track Record

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