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Sunday, August 25, 2013

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (August 25, 2013)

SPX went from 1655.25 to 1663.50 for a small +0.48% gain relieving some of the short term over sold conditions described last week.

Market conditions now

(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics: 26
McClellan: -12
43.94% of stocks are above their 20SMA
58.34% of stocks are above their 50SMA

Fairly neutral conditions if you ask me. I wouldn't sell close to at the money credit spreads at this point. This thing now has room to move.


September Positions
September SPX Iron Condor(1560/1565/1760/1765)
Looking very comfortable and with an 87% probability of success in the next 26 days.
(Click on image to enlarge)


RUT 935/940 Bull Put spread
Also looking great here with a 97% probability of success.
(Click on image to enlarge)


October Positions
SPX 1525/1530/1750/1755 Iron Condor nothing to analyze here as it was opened yesterday.


Plan for the week
No more September positions at this point. As for the existing ones, they look so comfortable that I don't think any adjustment will be necessary this week.

Looking at October, the new SPX Iron Condor is too young and shouldn't face problem this week either. And as for new positions, I want to sell a credit call Spread if the market keeps going up. But I would like to see  3% rally in order to do that. If that doesn't happen I will simply stay put letting time decay do its thing in all 3 positions I have now. I could also sell a credit put spread in October if the market falls 3 percent. I want to use RUT for that and a strike price that, when betaweighted,  is significantly lower than the SPX 1530 short strike of the existing Iron Condor.


Economic Calendar

Pretty light this week and I'm not expecting huge moves in the last week of August right before Labor Day in the US.

Monday - Durable Good orders
Thursday - GDP
Friday - European CPI, Unemployment Rate.

Take it easy, but take it anyways folks! Good luck with your trading!

Check out 2013 Track Record



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2 comments:

  1. Essentially a hard time in the past getting filled. But nothing else other than that

    ReplyDelete