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Sunday, July 14, 2013

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (July 14, 2013)

The market keeps defying gravity, and no matter how overbought it is, it just keeps stubbornly going up causing the worst possible scenario for credit spread sellers (sustained uptrends and low implied volatility, can't get worst than this)

This is how it's looking now

(Click on image to enlarge)
Stochastics at 96 (overbought)
McClellan at +186 (overbought)
85.80% of stocks are above their 20SMA (overbought)
74.04% of stocks are above their 50SMA (overbought)

Clearly overbought.

June 2013 positions

SPX 1505/1510 Bull Put spread this one is going to expire worthless this Friday for a profit of $160
RUT Bull Put Spread(890/895) also no problems here and will expire worthless for a profit of $280

August 2013 positions
August RUT Bear Call Spread (1080/1085) with RUT at 1036 I'm not concerned here. Probability of success 79%
August SPX Iron Condor(1560/1565/1745/1750) opened on Friday as part of an adjustment obviously no pressure on this new position

Plan for the week
There's nothing left to do in July. I will simply have a pacific expiration week and a very likely $440 profit on Friday.

As for August positions, I will wait for the market to retrace a little bit. A 3% decline will probably make me close the August RUT Bear Call Spread
, reducing my upside exposure and leaving only one position in both sides of the markets.As for selling new Credit Call spreads, that won't happen this week. And as for selling Put spreads, I need a greater decline than 3% along with a higher VIX. If the market doesn't decline and stays sideways, I'll do nothing.

Economic Calendar

Sunday - Chinese GDP
Monday - US Retail sales
Tuesday - US CPI and Industrial production
Wednesday - Fed chairman Bernanke testifies
Thursday - Initial Jobless claims, Fed chairman Bernanke testifies

Good luck this week folks!

Check out Track Record for 2013

Go to the bottom of this page in order to see the Legal Stuff

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