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Saturday, May 18, 2013

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (05-18-2013)

Yesterday was May 2013 expiration and with it, the RUT 1000/1005 Bear Call spread and the SPX 1440/1445 Bull Put spread expired worthless for full profit. May expiration was the best month so far this year with a +5.15% return before commissions.


Unfortunately, not everything is rosy over here and the absurdly unstoppable market had me adjust the June SPX 1430/1435/1660/1665 Iron Condor causing me a -$620 loss, ouch. This shouldn't have happened. I took too long to close the position, I should have closed it and opened the new one back on Tuesday, when the 1660 short strike hit the 30% probability of being in the money. But,......as luck would have it, things were extremely busy at the office, and meetings and stuffs,.......it's tough man, it's tough. Anyways, a new Iron Condor was entered with one more contract per leg using strikes 1540/1545/1715/1720. I won't analyze that particular position today as it is too new and it's not in trouble obviously.

Market conditions now

What else can we say that hasn't been said before?
The market went from 1632.1 to 1667.47 for a solid +2.17%. And the acceleration was spectacular, going above the uptrend channel that has been in play for a while now.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Stochastics 89
McClellan 51
77.22% of stocks above their 20SMA
75.58% of stocks above their 50SMA

Everything except the McClellan Oscillator shows little breathing room to the upside. And I believe this market needs a rest,.......but who cares what I say,..I mean really, this market has made everyone look stupid this year, except the "only long equity" mutual funds. This is a pretty tough market to outperform. Selling premium to get theta? Vol is too low, premiums are too low, Long Vega strategies? Yes Volatility is low, but it just doesn't want to go up. Pretty hard.


June Positions

Like I said the SPX 1540/1545/1715/1720 Iron Condor is a new position, obviously not in danger right now and no plans with it for this week.

The other position is the RUT 1025/1030 Bear Call Spread. I would like to close this one as soon as the market pulls back a little. My idea is to reduce the upside exposure, as I now have two Bear Call spreads vs only one bull Put spread in June. So, if I can close it fora scratch this week, I will.


Action Plan for the week

Other than the possible close of the RUT 1025/1030 Credit Call spread this week, I will probably consider entering the first July position by Friday, a July Iron Condor, most likely with short Put around 1510 and short Call around 1760.


Economic Calendar

Pretty quiet week in general.

Wednesday - US Existing Home sales at 10am
Thursday - Initial Jobless claims, New Home sales
Friday - German GDP, Durable good orders


Check out Track Record for 2013


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