tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post7909303786491583633..comments2023-06-03T05:06:58.216-04:00Comments on The Lazy Trader: November 2013 SPX Iron CondorHenrikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05792195649092816606noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post-39697027435084801322013-10-17T07:50:18.246-04:002013-10-17T07:50:18.246-04:00Hey Anonymous,
Most of the time, when selling cre...Hey Anonymous,<br /><br />Most of the time, when selling credit spreads that's what happens. The probability of success is slightly lower than the risk/reward, or if pricing is perfect they would be the same. And you would call that gambling too. Specially this year with implied volatility so low that is surely the case you will find. Are you a seller of options? Can you share some constructive knowledge? What strategies are you using in this market? Long call? Long put? The Lazy Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08598866019359750526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post-88733963587578786602013-10-17T07:40:02.919-04:002013-10-17T07:40:02.919-04:00May be I miss something, what is the purpose of me...May be I miss something, what is the purpose of mentioning 77% probability?<br />The loss vs reward is 5.25:1. Probability of loss is 0.23. <br />Long term, for every 4.37 successful trades there will be one with a loss of 5.25 x reward of a one successful trade. By probability definition the trade is losing one. <br /><br />Of course, there may be higher probability assumed, based on some subjective assumptions, but then it makes sense to mention this probability and assumptions, and not 77% based on historical prices. I<br /><br />f it is traded on 77% success this is statistically losing trade = gambling. Nothing wrong with gambling per se, but I think there are better strategies to gamble than iron condor.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post-13777562640972539482013-09-20T17:33:10.243-04:002013-09-20T17:33:10.243-04:00Hi Jonathan,
Just staying mechanical and opening ...Hi Jonathan,<br /><br />Just staying mechanical and opening the first trade exactly 8 weeks from expiration. No other rational behind it.<br />Good luck to you too.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />LTThe Lazy Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08598866019359750526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post-79427906483781669672013-09-20T17:26:27.053-04:002013-09-20T17:26:27.053-04:00What was your rational for opening the November SP...What was your rational for opening the November SPX trade today? This looks like a sold position. I would have done the same position but perhaps give myself 5 more points on the upper leg to 1805/1810. Good luck and good trading. Jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14635010979050643513noreply@blogger.com