tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post5821516055399556170..comments2023-06-03T05:06:58.216-04:00Comments on The Lazy Trader: Weekend Portfolio Analysis (October 18, 2014)Henrikhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05792195649092816606noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post-55299218611830016022014-10-19T00:09:25.773-04:002014-10-19T00:09:25.773-04:00The past week was pretty exciting for sure. It is ...The past week was pretty exciting for sure. It is only during market turbulence that we really know whether our trading strategy and plan are sound. I was pleasantly surprised that I had no fear or panic when we hit 1825 on SPX. When we hit 1825, I was trying to get a Dec SPX 1575/1570 credit put spread filled but the market moved back up too fast.<br /><br />You are handily beating the S&P 500 and probably more than 80% of the hedge fund managers in the market. Your strategy is working well this year.<br /><br />I have a feeling that scenario number two will unfold. I would also like this scenario to happen. I am waiting for the market to become overbought again so that I can sell some credit call spreads to iron condor with my credit put spreads. <br /><br />I like all your positions except the Nov RUT 1150/1160 credit call spread. I think you will probably need to adjust that position this month if the market continues to rally. One thing you can do is to buy Nov IWM debit call spread to protect your 1150/1160 position. <br /><br />What I did last week:<br /><br />1. Closed Oct RUT 1030/1020 credit put spread for .15 debit. This was the only position that made me nervous but RUT found support at 1040 and never looked back.<br />2. Bought protection via Nov IWM 100/98 debit put spread for .35 debit. I am thinking of closing this position next week because I believe the correction might be over. <br />3. Adjusted the Nov SPX 1835/1830 credit put spread to Dec SPY 167/165 credit put spread for a small loss. I adjusted this position on Monday when we lost 1900 on SPX. <br /><br />My current positions:<br /><br />Nov IWM 97/95 credit put spread (this position is the most vulnerable if we have another market correction)<br />Nov IWM 100/98 debit put spread (I am thinking of closing this next week if volatility subsides)<br />Nov IWM 116/118 debit call spread<br /><br />Dec RUT 950/945 credit put spread<br />Dec SPY 167/165 credit put spread<br />Dec SPX 1730/1725 credit put spread<br /><br />Dec5 IWM 93/91 credit put spread<br /><br />You can follow me on Twitter @lienjonathan where I tweet my 90% probability credit spread trades in real-time for free.Jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14635010979050643513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post-38658265541779695882014-10-18T23:43:50.672-04:002014-10-18T23:43:50.672-04:00Hi Dave,
Most hedge fund managers are in the nega...Hi Dave,<br /><br />Most hedge fund managers are in the negative for the year. So kudos to you for being breakeven. It has been a touch 2 weeks for most investors. You will make back the money soon enough. Keep us posted on your progress. Good luck with your trading.Jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14635010979050643513noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post-87732153516772798872014-10-18T20:56:36.514-04:002014-10-18T20:56:36.514-04:00Hi SP,
Glad to have you as a reader.
"do y...Hi SP,<br /><br />Glad to have you as a reader.<br /><br /> "do you reinvest your dividends?"<br />Not now. DRIPing would be ideal as reinvestments would be commission free. But I'm at a point where my current dividend payments from each company are small and not enough to cover the cost of one single share. I'm letting dividends accumulate and invest them when I reach at least $500 from them. Otherwise commissions would eat you alive.<br /><br />"related to debit price to cover the spreads when you reach the hypothetical 30% probability. How do you calculate these debit prices? "<br />Hint: the simplest way to do it is to look at the 30% prob spread today, and see how much it is worth. That would be the debit you would pay for yours if it hits 30% prob.<br /><br />"the probability at entry point or soon thereafter (for example during the initial rally on Friday) is already approaching 30...how do you reconcile that with your loss mitigating strategy of adjusting the trade when the probability gets close to the 30% mark."<br /><br />Believe it or not I entered that spread at the 10% prob. in the money. It is true, it almost reached 30% immediately after. In which case I would have adjusted further up without hesitation.<br /><br />Cheers,<br />LTThe Lazy Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08598866019359750526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post-45093881635424175212014-10-18T20:49:11.556-04:002014-10-18T20:49:11.556-04:00Hey Dave,
The S&P500 is returning +2.1% for th...Hey Dave,<br />The S&P500 is returning +2.1% for the year today. 90 to 95% of retail traders lose money and about 75% of the professional money managers do not beat the S&P500. If you are break even for the year, you're actually not doing so bad.<br /><br />Thanks for dropping by. You will become more selective with your positions over time.<br />Regards,<br />LTThe Lazy Traderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08598866019359750526noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post-15628301497969198192014-10-18T17:18:45.789-04:002014-10-18T17:18:45.789-04:00Hi LT: Long time follower but first time commenti...Hi LT: Long time follower but first time commenting. First off thank you for your wonderful blog. Very educational. I enjoy reading it, along with comments from some of your other contributors. With inspiration from you, I have started to create my own dividend portfolio. One question - do you reinvest your dividends? If so, how do you do it? Do you wait for the cash to build up and then make purchases. Otherwise I am not sure it would be very cost effective.<br /><br />The other question I have is regarding your projections related to debit price to cover the spreads when you reach the hypothetical 30% probability. How do you calculate these debit prices? Also I notice that at times when you put on a new trade (for example the RUT 1150/60 trade), the probability at entry point or soon thereafter (for example during the initial rally on Friday) is already approaching 30% ....how do you reconcile that with your loss mitigating strategy of adjusting the trade when the probability gets close to the 30% mark.<br /><br />Thanks again<br /><br />SP<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5375291312433129989.post-72713631873790758182014-10-18T16:44:33.118-04:002014-10-18T16:44:33.118-04:00Hi LT and Jonathan
It has been a very tough two we...Hi LT and Jonathan<br />It has been a very tough two week period and it appears to me you both did great. I adjusted once a week ago Friday, and I closed all of my November put spreads on Tuesday with the SPX at 1890. I lost about 7% for the month, which puts me break even for the year. But I feel pretty good that I recognized hope was becoming too important to my Nov trading plan, and I put on the brakes.<br />For now I am in cash. <br />Always learning from experience and your comments<br />DaveAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com