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Saturday, January 30, 2016

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (January 30, 2016)

Little by little, as the market moves back up, all the gurus start turning bullish, hoping we forget the ultra-cataclysmic calls made two weeks ago. By the time they are all convinced bulls again, the next sell-off is around the corner.

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

The Guru

It's a new year. Humans love to start it off with revamped plans and goals, several of which include making money in the financial markets. For the uninitiated, the Internet will make this an ultra-complex task, as marketers and salesmen disguised as experts will sell ads inundating every corner of the web, making it a real challenge to find high quality information, free of hype, BS and all sorts of manipulative techniques.

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (January 23, 2016)

We started off the shortened week with a very negative tone on Tuesday and Wednesday. At one point only 4% of the stocks were above their 20 Day Moving Average, the third lowest number in a decade, behind October 2008 and August 2011.

As usual, many people thought the markets were going to zero. Literally. Asking their fund managers to liquidate their positions, resulting in one of the most severe outflows seen in recent history. Sad. But it's the same cycle that will forever repeat itself, over and over again. This predictability of Human Psychology and this overpricing of fear is what will allow us to make money in the long run. You don't make money on perfectly priced markets. The edge is in the imperfections.

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Profitable Forex strategies - a follow up (2015 results)

Just like I did last year, I now want to go over the results of 4 Automated Forex strategies that have been discussed on this site in the past. The results last year were pretty good across the board, putting to rest the notion that "Forex robots don't work... wah-wah-wah".

Saturday, January 16, 2016

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (January 16, 2016)

So, last week I ran a little experiment. I published references to the weekend article twice on the main social media outlets (Twitter, Facebook, Google+). The first time, the post contained the traditional serious and boring financial chart. The second time, the reference to the article was accompanied by a picture of "Scarlett, my love, Johansson". Needless to say, the second link tripled the traffic generated by the first one. Horny humans.

Friday, January 15, 2016

SPY Victory Spread Feb-183Calls/Apr-200Calls

Today I entered a Victory Spread, which is a nicer name for a Ratio Diagonal.


Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Saturday, January 9, 2016

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (January 9, 2016)

In the previous Weekend Portfolio Analysis, I mentioned that my January 1865/1875/2200/2210 Iron Condor was safe and would be a winner. Boy, what a difference one week makes! With the crap-storm endured the first week of the year (the worst in the history of the markets), the 1875 short Put of the Iron Condor reached 20 deltas several times, looking not so safe at all.

Friday, January 8, 2016

SPY Puts as portfolio insurance for the weekend


March SPX Credit Put Spread


Monday, January 4, 2016

March Portfolio Insurance via SPY

Today the April SPY Puts were closed for a total $276 profit.


Saturday, January 2, 2016

Weekend Portfolio Analysis (January 2, 2016)

Happy New Year.
We are all one year closer to death now. Yayyy! Congratulations and my condolences.

The SPX index went from 2058.90 to 2043.94 in 2015 for a -0.7% return. Shares of SPX cannot be bought, so the proxy ETF, the SPY, is the vehicle of choice by default, which does a little bit better as it pays dividends. Return for the year: +1.3%. Of course, taxes are to be paid to the king on those dividends. You also need to consider trading commissions depending on the broker, and finally the management fee of the ETF itself. It is therefore, pretty safe to say that most investors were flat to negative in 2015.

As for the new year, it is going to be a really interesting one with the Super Cheap Money Era coming to an end, and pretty much every developed nation except the US sucking right now.